Cricket

South Africa v England 2nd Test Live Betting Blog: Day Three

Live Test Match Blogging RSS / Ed Hawkins / 27 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

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Can Trott make the difference?

Can Trott make the difference?

England had little trouble with the bat at the end of the second day in Durban, but they can continue where they left off? Ed Hawkins talks us through an intriguingly-poised third day


CLOSE 15.33 Eng 386-5, lead by 43
England may be in charge of this Test but the draw remains the resounding favourite. That is fair enough. Only 15 wickets have fallen in 231 overs. And when only wickets can move the game forward, it is difficult not to feel pessimistic about a result. An ideal world for draw layers would be for England to be bowled out as quickly as possible. But this wicket is flat, and getting flatter. England will need to score quickly but they would have to be rocket-propelled to get them to a declaration point and give themselves enough time to knock over South Africa for a second time. I reckon the stalemate should be [1.40] instead of [1.52]. South Africa are [30.00] and England are [3.15]


15.24 Eng 384-5
We're winding down. Bit surprised to see that the draw hasn't shortened at all in this last session. Loads of overs left but normally in a situation like this, it will slide down to sub [1.40]. England lead by 43, which means they have plenty of work to do before considering a declaration. South Africa, one would think, need wickets but they may be quite happy to sit in and restrict England's runscoring.


15.07 Eng 377-5
There are eight overs left tonight but there are still things to munch on. Ian Bell has a 50 and Jacques Kallis looks to be bowling at full pelt. Up in the high 80s in terms of mph. Also, Matt Prior looks extremely tentative. He's not getting behind the ball against Kallis and that resulted in him offering a chance to Hashim Amla at short leg.


15.00 Eng 366-5
Let's answer Portuguese Pirate's questions. Firstly, Kumar Sangakkara's signing is a coup for Lancashire, not only because he is a class act but he is a top bloke, too. Rather important quality for an overseas player. And yes, Lancashire probably will be favourites for the new ECB 40-over competition and expanded Twenty20 league. Probably around the [3.50] mark for both. They'd be terrible value, though, even with Sangakkara and Andrew Flintoff. Sangakkara will miss the first chunk of the ECB 40-over programme because he is with Sri Lanka in the World Twenty20. He may also miss at least six games in the Twenty20 because of the Asia Cup.


WICKET 14.52 Eng 365-5
P Collingwood c Boucher b Duminy 91. South Africa [26.00], England [3.25] and the draw [1.49].


14.42 Eng 359-4
Portuguese Pirate has been in touch via the email. "Interesting news that Lancashire have signed Kumar Sangakkara as their overseas player for next season. As one of the top three batsmen in the world, a super keeper and a cracking captain, I make him just about the most valuable player in world cricket at the minute. Even if he's not made captain at Lancashire his advice will be invaluable. Do you know how much of the season he will be available for? And with him and Flintoff in the team will they automatically be favourites for the limited-overs competitions?"


14.30 Eng 343-4
Scores level. Surprisingly, Collingwood and Bell have put their foot down a little. The run rate in the last 10 overs is 3.7. Collingwood is 84 not out and closing in on top bat status, a wager we discussed yesterday. On the flip side, Cook, who Colly must beat, was written off. Funny old game eh?


14.13 Eng 324-4
There are 20 overs left tonight. Really, England should try to up their rate here. We're now getting into a time sensitive situation. The quicker England score, the more overs they have to bowl South Africa out and chase down a target. Of course, England will not start to score more quickly. The safety approach that cost South Africa victory in game one will be adopted by Andrew Strauss. But we expect that. That's why these blokes are professional cricketers instead of professional gamblers.

13.57 Eng 315-4
The dismissal of Cook probably puts paid to England's slim hopes of a monster total to try to win by an innings. Ian Bell was given a torrid time by Morne Morkel but the right-hander has survived. Indeed, a pull shot for four from Ntini first ball of his spell releases the pressure somewhat. We have stalemate on the match odds with the prices refusing to budge. The odds are the same as they were at tea.


13.28 Eng 301-4
Ding dong merrily on a high, in Durban Bell is panicking. Well, maybe not actually. Bell is not a man for a pressure situation. This is not one. In fact, these are exactly the sort of conditions in which Bell thrives. Easy. The sort a myopic pensioner could score runs in. The wicket is flat, the bowlers are tired, the runs have been scored. The only slight concern for England's neurotic No 6 is the second new ball remains relatively hard. Bell is [2.52] to score a 50.


WICKET 13.21 Eng 297-4
A Cook c Kallis b Morkel 118. South Africa [18.45], England [4.60] and the draw [1.47].


13.00 Eng 281-1
Question: has there ever been a Test when Sirloin of Beef and Nasser Hussain have been commentating and the former has not ribbed the latter about his decision to bowl first in Brisbane? It is right up there with whoopee cushions and knock-knock gags as some of the most tiresome, childish and over-used jokes of all time. South Africa need something to smile about in this session coming up ... and quick.



TEA 12.41 Eng 281-3
Without a doubt that was England's session. South Africa must get a wicket quickly after tea. Interestingly, Paul Harris has failed to bowl a maiden. That suggests England have worked him out, crucially not allowing Graeme Smith to keep one end tight. South Africa [20.00], England [3.50] and the draw [1.47]


12.30 Eng 271-3
Just under 10 minutes until tea. Gosh South Africa need a wicket. Not sure they're going to get one, though with Alastair Cook and Paul Collingwood looking solid. If South Africa fail to make a breakthrough before tea or in the 10-15 minutes after it, I think we can start to write their epitaph in this Test. Do send some suggestions over as to what it might be on the old email.


12.09 Eng 264-3
South Africa take the new ball as England chalk up a couple of milestones; a 100-run partnership for the fourth wicket and a half-century for Paul Collingwood. At [1.47] the draw price is heading south, as predicted. We're not sure the new ball is going to halt the slide. This wicket looks pretty flat, although we should bear in mind that the last time South Africa got a second new ball in this series in apparent cosy batting conditions, England lost five wickets for 23 runs.


11.46 Eng 242-3
A century for Alastair Cook. Not one of the most aesthetically pleasing you'll ever see, but if you're a fan of determination and guts then this will be right up there. Cook has a plethora of technical problems, all of which have proven to be insignificant in an innings where his greatest strength, his mental toughness, has come to the fore. Unfortunately for those of us who would rather watch someone who has a better balance between the two, then this knock probably solidifies his position in the team for another 12 months.


11.30 Eng 229-3
In my opinion, the most likely situation going into the later stages of day four is this: England get a lead of 60 or 70 and are bowled out in tomorrow's first session. At England's current rate of just over three an over, they should be 50 ahead by tonight. But the rate could drop with Cook (94 not out) and Collingwood not the quickest scorers. Wickets will slow them as well but even though a new ball is due, this surface looks pretty dead. It all means the stalemate could be around the [1.35] mark by the end of the day.

13.05 Eng 287-3
Question: have Sirloin of Beef and Nasser Hussain ever commentated on a Test when the former has not ribbed the latter of his decision to bat first in Brisbane? It is right up there with the whoopee cushion and knock-knock gags as some of the oldest, most tiresome and childish jokes going. Zzzzzzzzzzz. Crunch time for SA, then. A wicket is a must.


11.15 Eng 213-3
The best and worse case scenario for England and South Africa respectively is that the tourists go way past Graeme Smith's side and make them bat last. In other words, try to win the game by an innings. This is the option favoured by viewers who are wearing red and white tinted glasses. England would need to score a minimum of 550. They have managed to breach 500 only five times away from home since 1998. And three of those totals came against a weak West Indies attack on featherbeds. It seems fanciful discussing it but I felt obliged to because Mike Atherton and David Lloyd mentioned it as a possibility on comms.


11.00 Eng 205-3
So where is this game going? There are two options, both of which I will discuss in due course. But both will answer another question, which I'm sure regular followers of this blog are asking: why are we laying the draw. The quick answer to that is that it is bad value. With slow coaches Cook and Colly at the crease it is only going to get shorter. Only wickets will bring it back out and we're not too sure that with the sun out and deck getting better, there will be too many of those in this session. The draw is [1.50].


10.41 Eng 190-3
Let's deal with the email traffic before the players come out for the second sessions. General ignominy at the lack of Xmas Challenge. Well, sad news folks. The Health and Safety Executive got in touch after yesterday's players risked heart failure with a minimum of 20 chocolates, three mince pies and two pigs in blankets consumed. They reckoned it was irresponsible to play again on such a potentially volatile third day.


LUNCH 10.00 Eng 190-3
England have scored 85 runs in that session at just over two an over. Considering thay have gone so slowly and lost the wickets of Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen, I think it would be fairto say that it is pretty even-steven. England trail by 150. Alastair Cook (75) will have to accelerate this afternoon. Likewise Paul Collingwood, who has hit only nine off 38 balls. South Africa [6.60], England [4.50] and the draw [1.67].


09.41 Eng 175-3
A great example of why the referral system is bad for cricket. Alastair Cook is still in, meaning the torture is far from over. Seriously, though, the right decision was made. Cook was adjudged to have got an inside edge of JP Duminy to Hashim Amla at short leg. But it was pretty clear he didn't hit it.


09.27 Eng 174-3
Despite being only 169 runs behind with seven wickets left, England will still do well to get a lead. With Alastair Cook and Paul Collingwood two batsmen who are rarely capable of scoring quickly and with their remaining recognised batsmen, Ian Bell and Matt Prior, out of form, there is life in South Africa yet. They are [6.00] but could be around the [4.30] mark if they achieve something close to first-innings parity.

09.09 Eng 159-3
A huge wicket for South Africa. With Cook so slow and the careful Paul Collingwood replacing Pietersen, Graeme Smith will be confident of reducing England to a virtual crawl. Certainly for the next 30 minutes or so we can expect England to go nowhere. The draw is [1.63]. That will shorten.


WICKET 09.04 Eng 155-3
K Pietersen lbw b Harris 31. South Africa [6.60], [4.20] and [1.61]


09.02 Eng 154-2
Alastair Cook's birthday is on Christmas Day but he ain't the Messiah. He's a very naughty boy. "If he was playing cricket outside my house," says David Lloyd. "I'd shut the curtain." Amen to that. England's third fifty is the slowest of the lot, and that is wholly down to Cook, who has 50 himself. He has guts, though to hang in there when he is finding it so hard.


08.43 Eng 139-2
Alastair Cook needs another nine runs for his first 50 in nine innings. He has been dreadfully slow, though. His strike rate is a mere 35. On the one hand England will be pleased Cook has occupied the crease but on the other, he has been poor value for his time. As I type, Jacques Kallis has shelled a catch at slip from Kevin Pietersen off Paul Harris. An odd one. It looked as though Kallis wasn't concentrating. He wasn't even in position to the chance which came from a back-foot force. Kallis made a token effort but didn't have a hope in hell of grabbing it.


08.20 Eng 121-2
Much hoo-ha about Makhaya Ntini returning to the attack. He hasn't bowled since his profligate three overs yesterday. To some, that has meant his career is over. Bit of an overreaction. Granted he is under pressure but that won't be a first for a man who has played 101 Tests. I do not doubt that Ntini has gone round the park before and the captain has ignored him for a few hours as a result. England should attack him, though. That would give South Africa a problem.


07.55 Eng 110-2
England then are immediately on the back foot. This may sound odd, but they would probably have preferred that Cook would have been the man to fall. Badly out of touch, he is just holding up an end and he has only just got off the mark this morning. Had Trott been there to play around Kevin Pietersen, England would get full value. SOuth Africa [5.60], England [4.44], the draw [1.68]


WICKET 07.35 Eng 104-2
J Trott c Boucher b Morkel 18. Well, that didn't take long. A great start for South Africa.


07.30 104-1
These early starts seems very un-festive if you ask me. I mean, the heating hasn't even come on yet. No matter. Good on the umps for making up as much lost time as possible. This could be a good day for batting with the sun set to shine, although both Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott must start from scratch. South Africa will be confident of getting at least one of them early.

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