Live Test Match Blogging / Ed Hawkins / 30 July 2008 / 1

Cricket betting supremo Ed Hawkins is on hand to guide you through the fluctuations of the crucial third Test at Edgbaston. Email your punting posers to him at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk.

18.35 SA 38-1
South Africa well in charge. They are 193 runs behind. England looked downcast in the field and looked to be taking it out on each other. Ryan Sidebottom disgraced himself with some unjust abuse directed at Monty Panesar. Just another reason why England, after being bowled out for 231, are [5.30]. SA are [1.63] and the draw is [5.10]. See you tomorrow.

18.15 SA 17-1
My word England needed this wicket. Andrew Flintoff has removed Graeme Smith by making him edge to Andrew Strauss at slip. Up until now England have bowled poorly but that strike might just ignite their spirit. Another one tonight and they will be close to buoyant. Paul Harris has been sent in as nightwatchman,

17.50 SA 2-0
You know the body language of people when they are told their train is delayed by an hour or, worse, cancelled altogether? Heads down, shoulders slumped and faces like thunder. Well, that's how England's players look. It's awful. They need an 'up and at 'em' approach here. There are nine overs left tonight and England must make a breakthrough, otherwise they will turn up tomorrow in even worse spirits. A bad day tomorrow will see them out of the Test, something which will be no good for punters who want a decent betting heat.

17.33 England 231
England can't get anything right. Andrew Flintoff was attempting to farm the strike and his attempt to get back to face the next over resulted in James Anderson being run out. And with one ball to survive, Monty Panesar ran himself out. He tried to come back for a second off the only ball he needed to face and was well short. 'No!' should have been the call. Pretty pathetic stuff from the home team. Flintoff was unbeaten on 36.

17.20 England 215-8
Ryan Sidebottom is the next to go. Another wicket to Kallis - his third. This is what JC has to say about it all. "Oh no! Just seen the scorecard. Looks like it could be (beef) curtains for this series after just two sessions of the match. How have half our team got out to that lard-ass pie-chucker Kallis?" Flintoff must throw the blade now.

17.14 England 212-7
Tim Ambrose has played down the wrong line and inside-edged a Kallis delivery on to his stumps. He made 22 but it has to go down as a failure and if he fails second time around he is another player whose position will be in doubt at The Oval.

17.00 England 206-6
I have had to heavily edit the note sent from James Goldman. Suffice to say he was using considerably stronger language than 'wally' in the following. "Michael Vaughan is a wally. Paul Collingwood is a wally. Peter Moores is a wally. And I'm pretty sure that soon I will be able to label Tim Ambrose a wally." He also asks when the last time was that SA won a series in England. The answer is 1965. A 1-0 triumph in a three-Test series.

16.40 England 196-6
Mahavir has been in touch again. "As per your advice I was waiting to lay the draw around evens or below aftter lunch but the price didn't come down. So now what do you suggest to bet on? Should I wait for any particular price? I dont think the draw to lay will come again. Waiting for your expert opinion." Flattery will get you everywhere, Mahavir. You are right to say we may not get a chance to lay the draw again. If we do, I will of course let everyone know. You were slightly unfortunate earlier because when the price was close to hitting evens, England lost a wicket. Timing is so important in this game. As for a bet currently, it might be worth having a nibble of England's price at [4.1]. If they could get to 300 they would be very much in the game because of the reasons given in my previous post. It would be a back and lay trade, however, and by no means a wager of confidence as high as previous draw lar recommendations. My advice would be to keep your powder dry for better options to come over the next four days.

16.35 England 192-6
Decadence is taking over here. I've just had a cup of tea and a caramel chocolate truffle. Eat your heart out Mrs Frobisher. Andrew Flintoff and Tim Ambrose are battling away but they look low on confidence. If England could get to 300 - not in the realms of impossibility - England's backers should not feel too low because of the threat of Monty Panesar on a deteriorating wicket.

16.00 England 173-6
Ben McDevitt has emailed. "I've been checking Jacques Kallis out at [4.80] to be South Africa's highest bat in the first innings. Do you think he can break his recent form slump?" Excellent question, Ben. The situation with Kallis at the moment is a well-known conundrum for punters. With only 24 runs in the series so far, his form has been shocking. The problem is, Kallis is too good a player (he averages 56 in Tests) for that to continue so we have a situation where we would be backing him on the basis that he is due runs. It's not a bad ploy but I prefer to have a top-bat bet when all the planets come into line. The planets are: good recent form, good form against the opposition and good ground form. So how does Kallis fare on the astrological chart? Despite an unbeaten half-century against the woeful Bangladesh A last week, it would be pushing it to say he is in nick. He doesn't have form against England, either with an average of 31 in England in Tests. As for ground form, he made 61 in his one and only innings there in 1998. If you wanted to follow the planets theory, Graeme Smith could be the man. In form, good record against England and a double ton at this venue last time. However, I don't have a strong opinion on the SA top-bat market. I wrote it off as a market too tough to call a few days ago because, Kallis aside, all of their top six are in great touch. The question you have to ask yourself Ben is this: am I happy backing Kallis solely on the fact that he is due runs? If you are, then go for it.

15.45 England 173-6 TEA
Another session for South Africa to go with the one they won this morning and all of the sessions at Headingley. England need Andrew Flintoff and Tim Ambrose to buck the trend of their batsmen getting themselves out. They need the duo to biff their way to a score of 300. Average first-innings score here is 315.

15.40 England 173-6
Bell gone. 50 and out. England in a real hole now. Falling, falling, falling they are. And they are scrabbling to get out, clawing at the soil and earth because they know South Africa could fill the void, ending their series aspirations. SA [1.77].

15.23 England 159-5
Paul Collingwood's poor form continues. Gone for a tortuous four. The sort of innings that should be put on display at the London Dungeon. Not wishing to brag, but it was this blog and its readers that held a vote on who should be dropped from England's top six way back in the Old Trafford Test against New Zealand. Colly was voted off with Big Brother-style vehemence. We spoke but, sadly, the selectors did not listen. Kallis got him with Smith pouching the catch at slip. SA as short as [2.04].

15.13 England 153-4
Paul Collingwood is off the mark after 34 minutes and 16 balls. He is under pressure for runs because, rightly, there has been consternation at his recall. Averaging only 9.7 this summer in Tests some felt that Collingwood should not have waltzed straight back into the side following his demotion at Headingley. With Owais Shah and Ravi Bopara both in tremendous form it is a surprise that Colly remains, especially as he has shown so little with the bat in the last few weeks. He did gets runs in Twenty20 finals day. Previous coach Duncan Fletcher was a big believer in that format helping batsmen to relax before a Test. It is unlikely that current boss Peter Moores brought Colly back with that in mind however, because Alastair Cook and Andrew Strauss were banned for playing for Essex and Middlesex respectively.

15.02 England 147-4
A couple of emails have arrived at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk. Here's what Geordie Racer had to say. "Think I might just keep backing England here. Monty's gonna do it for us in the fourth innings. A quick pat on the back for the selectors, too (rare given the abuse they've taken in the last fortnight). Leaving Harmy out was the right call, especially since it's become obvious you can't afford to bowl short on this track. I like the balance of this England team, even if a couple of the players are short of form." James from London has also been in touch. "If England can call up an unknown such as Darren Pattinson, do you think there's any chance of a recall for my all-time favourite bowler, Phil De Freitas?" About as much chance as you putting your DeFreitas obsession to one side James and focussing on someone new. It's over, my friend. Deal with it.

14.35 England 136-4
Alastair Cook has been dismissed, just as England were regaining a foothold. It's Andre Nel - or Gunther if you like - who has done the damage. He found the edge of Cook's bat and Jacques Kallis took an excellent diving catch. The draw is out to [2.74] now and layers will need a decent partnership now if they are going to get against the stalemate at around the evens mark today.

14.30 England 136-3
Good friend of the blog Mahavir has been in touch again. He has this to say. "First of all thanks to you for being right from the first ball in the second Test. You predicted South Africa and laying the draw at [1.20]. What is your choice for this match and at what rate should we back or lay the draw. And what's the weather like?" Well old chum, we like England in this match because of their fine record at Edgbaston - four wins from last five - and the fact that they will get to bowl at South Africa last on a wearing pitch. As for the draw, lay it when it gets to evens or below for big money on this first day. It's creeping down again, currently at [2.22]. There is a weather forecast posted at 11.22

14.20 England 121-3
Apologies for the delaying in posting, I've had a few technical problems here which were very sticky indeed. I don't think the laptop reactedc well to a snooze at lunchtime. Anyway, we're off and running again. England are beginning to make progress again after that three-wicket loss just before lunch. Alastair Cook is looking much more adept; he is finding his timing and his feet are moving nicely.

13.45 England 89-3
Alastair Cook has a half-century, which appears to be something of miracle. As far as I can make out, Cook's technique is all over the place. His head is going so far over to the offside that he is almost toppling over. Cealrly he is relying on 'eye' only.

13.00 England 82-3 LUNCH
England go to lunch three down, a considerably worse position than they expected. They were cruising but lost three wickets for six runs, two for Andre Nel and one for Jacques Kallis. Andrew Strauss, Michael Vaughan and Kevin Pietersen are the men back in the pavilion and SA are enjoying favourite status again at [2.82]. The draw price has been our main point of focus because we laid at odds-on and are sitting pretty.

12.55 England 74-3
England are in trouble. Kevin Pietersen has been given out caught off Jacques Kallis with Ashwell Prince taking the catch at square leg. The umpire reckons KP has edged onto a pad sending the ball ballooning to Prince. But it looks a poor decision because there is no hint of bat. In fact, it should have been given leg before. Draw out to [2.6] to back.

12.45 England 73-2
Michael Vaughan was adamant that he didn't edge that behind from Andre Nel. So too was Mark Bouhcer, who didn't even bother appealing. But the 'snickometer' and 'hotspot' suggest there was the thinnest of edges. I suppose the England captain can consider himself slightly unfortunate. When you're down - he averaged only seven in this series before the Test - things don't go your way. The draw price, by the way, has gone from [1.76] to [2.08].

12.38 England 68-2
Chaos here. South Africa have two wickets in two balls with Andrew Strauss and Michael Vaughan gone. Just as Strauss was beginning to look as though he couldn't put a foot wrong, he made an almighty error. The left-hander stood on his stumps, pushing a back-of-a-length delivery from Gunther into the legside. Vaughan was given out caught behind but reckons he didn't touch it.

12.35 England 68-0
On the subject of alter-egos, it is a sad indictment on my lifestyle that considering my penchant for tea and cake, I would probably be Mrs Frobisher, who enjoys a natter at a WI meeting.

12.20 England 51-0
We are having out first look this series at Andre Nel, the South Africa bowler. He is an odd character to say the least. Quite often - irritatingly so - you will see him walk down the wicket to the batsman after a delivery and abuse him. He blames these histrionics on an alter-ego called Gunther, who he says lives in the Bavarian hills and behaves this way because he doesn't not get enough "oxygen to the brain". Let me know about your alter-egos at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk.

11.55 England 36-0
Alastair Cook has just struck Makhaya Ntini for a nice four through point, which makes Geordie Racer's comment about the South Africa paceman pertinent. "Ntini looks a shadow of his former self, I think it's time he got the grey hair dye out and moved on to his next career as a Morgan Freeman lookalike."

11.40 England 29-0
Officially I give you permission to lay the draw at [1.96]. It is one of those crazy market moves which makes me wonder whether I am seeing things. In the space of 40 minutes the draw has dipped alarmingly from [2.22]. There are punters out there who are choosing to see one thing but ignore another. Yes, England are going okay but we have seen uneven bounce already and it is only likely to get worse. There have been only two draws in the last 13 at Edgbaton and although both of those have come against South Africa, that is a statistical quirk.

11.22 England 16-0
I am already getting twitcy about this draw price. It's heading south and I will let you know when the best time to lay it will be. Here's the weather forecast for the Test, by the way...
Day one Sunny, high of 23C
Day two Showers but the warmest day of 24C
Day three Showers
Day four Showers, slightly heavier than previously
Day five Sunny spells

11.08 England 5-0
So, what is the sense about backing England to win here despite a 10-wicket loss at Headingley? For a start, they are less likely to wobble and topple over because they are better balanced. They have finally recognised that Andrew Flintoff should be considered only as part of a four-man bowling attack. In a stroke England have discarded to the the 'worst ideas in history' bin that Tim Ambrose bats at No. 6. So, they can walk tall and puff out their chests. Particularly at Edgbaston where they have won four of their last five matches. It is their most successful ground and the support of the crowd has inspired them to play their best cricket. Finally, they have a spinner and South Africa do not. Expect Monty Panesar to be the difference between the sides in this match on a wicket which should take spin later on. Ashley Giles, now, now no emails saying he was no spinner, is one of the most successful England bowlers of recent times with 20 wickets on the ground.

11.00 England 0-0
Good morning sports fans. We're ready for a belter in Birmingham. England are bullish at the Bull Ring. And everyone is, er, expectant, at Edgbaston. Importantly there has been a toss. And England have won it. Unsurprisingly they have decided to bat first, which is absolutely crucial because of this wicket's reputation for deterioration and taking turn. Monty Panesar will have a smile broader than the average Brummie's waistline. The teams are below, here are the prices: England [3.50], South Africa [3.65] and [2.22] the draw. We'll be pinning our colurs to England's mast for this match for reasons I shall be outlining throughout this morning. They are 1-0 down, of course so if you think I've lost my mind, please tell me so at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk.
England: AN Cook, AJ Strauss, MP Vaughan, KP Pietersen, IR Bell, PD Collingwood, A Flintoff, TR Ambrose, RJ Sidebottom, JM Anderson, MS Panesar
SA: GC Smith, ND McKenzie, HM Amla, JH Kallis, AG Prince, AB de Villiers, MV Boucher, M Morkel, PL Harris, A Nel, M Ntini

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1. pluctunny | 01 October 2008

   Hi all!
   Nice site!
   
   G'night

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