IPL Betting: Who's in, out, in-form, flopped and which fans are going to have something to shout about?

Indian Premier League - IPL / Andrew Hughes / 05 May 2008 / 1 Comments

Andrew Hughes tells us which players have left the IPL due to international commitments, which have come in and which teams are real contenders to win the inaugural version of the contest

Betting has its share of crusty old adages that the free-thinking punter should regard with scepticism. One of the most common is that you should avoid 'trappy' contests. 'Trappy' usually means events where the form is hard to evaluate, either because there is too much or too little information. But these are the very betting heats where those prepared to do the work can gain the biggest edge.

The IPL is a classic example. Faced with a newish format and a strange tournament involving large squads of players assembled from around the world, it appears that many punters have lazily fallen back on simply supporting the franchises with the biggest names. Why else were the Deccan Chargers so fancied at the start of the tournament, if not due to the presence of Symonds and Gilchrist? It also explains why it has been possible so far to make a profit by simply backing the outsider of two teams. In a tournament where all the sides have match winners and are all capable of beating one another, it makes little sense to go in at short odds.

And just looking at the squad list can give a false impression. No matter how many foreign stars a team have, it can only play four of them at a time. On top of that, the squads contain a number of players who aren't actually available, either due to disciplinary problems or other commitments. With more arrivals and departures than an international airport, it is vital to keep on top of which players are about to leave and which have just arrived. Last week, the entire Australian squad flew out for their pre-Caribbean training camp and the five Black Caps left for England whilst the South Africans and Pakistanis were flying in. Meanwhile, Brad Hodge has signed for Kolkata, Tendulkar is still injured, Harbajhan has been banned and Shoaib, it now appears, is un-banned.

But for those able to keep on top of the comings and goings and to analyse the matches so far, there are certain useful trends already apparent. In particular, when looking at those teams who have fared best, the recurring factors are strong captaincy, good team spirit and economical bowling. Of the eight teams, it is already possible to make an educated guess as to which will be in the semi-finals.

Delhi Daredevils have lost a couple recently, but their good start should give them enough to reach the last four. Their success has been built on some miserly bowling from McGrath, Asif and Maharoof, an attack that has proved so effective that their lightweight middle order batting has not been tested too often. You can back them in the winner's market at [4.8]

Rajasthan Royals' success has defied the critics who pointed to an absence of big name signings. But Shane Warne has brought about a remarkable team spirit. His young team play for one another, their bowling has been tigerish and his infectious leadership style, his positive attitude, willingness to gamble and tactical intelligence have been a pleasure to watch. Known as Jaipur in the Betfair winner's market, they are the current favourites at [4.3]

The Kings XI Punjab (Mohali) have also shown a great spirit. A batting line up of Yuvraj, Sangakkara and Jayawardene is imperious though Brett Lee is a hard bowler to replace. He led the line impeccably and provided a real cutting edge. In his absence, they will look to one of the domestic players to step up and support Pathan and Sreesanth. They are available at [6.0]

Finally, the Chennai Super Kings made a good start, making the most of Hayden and Hussey while they were available. But what has helped maintain their challenge is the emergence of a credible bowling attack. With Gony and Joginder Sharma bowling economical medium pace, they have become more than a one-dimensional team. Dhoni's adept leadership has also been a factor, putting into perspective the poor showing of two former Indian captains, Ganguly and Dravid, who have struggled to adapt to the format. If you think Chennai have what it takes to win the tournament, you can back them at [6.6]

Comments (1)

1. Free Bets | 06 May 2008

   4.8 is a very good price!