IPL Betting: How to win the IPL

Indian Premier League - IPL / Andrew Hughes / 03 March 2010 / 2 Comments

Tendulkar is an ordinary Twenty20 captain

"The importance of leadership is sometimes downplayed in other formats but in such a competitive tournament, in which all the teams are closely matched, it can make all the difference."

The third edition of cricket's Twenty20 carnival is nearly upon us. As eight teams packed full of superstars gear up for the greatest cricket tournament on earth, Andrew Hughes asks what it takes to win the IPL.

The Indian Premier League is not only the most exciting Twenty20 tournament in the world, it is also the most popular cricket betting event. Billions will be gambled on the outcome of this star-studded competition and punters will be looking for any kind of edge. With the tournament just nine days away, the antepost winners market is in full swing, with Delhi Daredevils the current favourites at [5.6]. But before you plunge in, it is worth taking a moment or two to ask a fundamental question about the IPL. What does it take to win?

The starting point before betting in most cricket events is to establish which is the better side and, more specifically, which has the better players. But if the first two editions of the IPL have taught us anything, it is that you need not waste too much time trawling through the squad lists and wrestling with averages and economy rates. All eight teams are packed with talented cricketers and each of them is capable of putting out an XI of the highest quality.

That is not to say that the players don't matter. Injuries and unavailability have to be borne in mind as does the form of the big stars. Bangalore Royal Challengers got off to a poor start in IPL 2009, partly due to the poor form of Kevin Pietersen, Ross Taylor and Jesse Ryder and Shahid Afridi and Herschelle Gibbs flopped in 2008 for Deccan Chargers. But after two editions, most franchises have built up squads that are strong in all areas and can cope with any contingency.

So when you have eight teams so closely matched on paper, you have to start looking at other factors, besides the make up of the squad. And without doubt, the most important of these is captaincy. The importance of leadership is sometimes downplayed in other formats but in such a competitive tournament, where all the teams are closely matched, it can make all the difference.

Shane Warne's leadership of the Rajasthan Royals was the decisive factor in their winning the inaugural tournament in 2008. He took a squad that looked weak on paper and turned them into an effective unit. His enthusiasm and desire for innovation kept things fresh during what is an intense sixteen game competition and his man management skills kept the team together.

Last year, Adam Gilchrist had a similar effect on Deccan Chargers. They had been no-hopers under VVS Laxman, but Gilchrist captained aggressively, was strong under pressure and showed faith in the younger Indian players as well as the big names, binding the squad together. The first two IPL tournaments have shown that good team spirit begins with the captain. It is perhaps no coincidence that Bangalore's run to the final began when captain Kevin Pietersen left for England to be replaced by wise old head Anil Kumble.

So knowing this, what can we learn in terms of IPL 2010? It should tell us that, despite having the best squad in the tournament, Delhi Daredevils can be overlooked once more. Gautum Gambhir has not yet shown himself a capable captain and when it comes down to those pressure games, like the semi-finals, they are likely to fall short, as they have done in the last two editions. Sourav Ganguly will undoubtedly be more effective at Kolkata this year than Brendon McCullum was last, but can be a divisive figure. You should also overlook Mumbai Indians and Kings XI Punjab, as Sachin Tendulkar and Yuvraj Singh respectively have not shown they have what it takes to captain successfully in this format.

For the winner of IPL 2010, you should look no further than the Rajasthan Royals at a surprising [10.5]. Shane Warne is by a distance the best captain in the IPL and Rajasthan have strengthened their squad with the addition of Damien Martyn and Adam Voges. They won one game fewer than Deccan Chargers, the eventual winners of the tournament last year and are more than capable of reaching the semi-finals, where Warne's leadership and their incredible team spirit will make them a formidable knock-out opponent.

Comments (2)

1. Paul | 05 March 2010

   Andrew
   I spotted that price on Rajasthan Royals but was not sure why that was, I thought I had missed something.
   For the reasons you have outlined I will have a bit of that.
   Keep up the good work, always a smashing read!

2. bharat | 14 March 2010

   andrew hughes prediction was right that kolaata knight riders will win the opening match