IPL Betting: Don't need no diamonds

Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 22 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Brains not brawn. Strategy not style. Discipline not decadence. They were the key ingredients that made the Rajasthan Royals the surprise winners in the inaugural IPL last year, writes Ed Hawkins.

While the world and his wife were salivating over the other teams who resembled diamond encrusted jewelry with the expensive stars they had lined up, it was the cheapest outfit in the competition that caught the eye. The JD Samuel instead of De Beers, if you will.

Rajasthan's blueprint for success was, in fact, pretty basic stuff and it's a lesson that bettors should heed when trying to turn a profit on a tournament which can appear daunting. Instead of getting distracted by the big names, it is those who work develop a strategy and keep their discipline to implement it who will be celebrating.

So, how best to start making money out of the tournament, which before Wednesday's matches remains in its infancy with only six completed?

One does not have to be a genius to recognise that there has been a bias in favour of the sides batting first. Four matches have been won by teams squeezing the life out of chasing opponents.

It is important to note that in the first IPL it was the team batting second who were dominant with 59 per cent of contests won by wickets instead of runs. This highlights the difference in pitches between India and South Africa.

In the Rainbow Nation the surfaces are not as good to bat on because there is more zip through the air and off the pitch. In India, batsmen were able to plant their front foot and swing through the line of the ball. That is unlikely to be possible at the majority of venues, save for Johannesburg.

Already we are seeing a more even duel between bat and ball. In the first six games this year the average total batting first is just 140. In India after the same number it was 172 and three sides had passed 200. The highest score in South Africa is Chennai's 179 against Bangalore.

What this means for our strategy is obvious. We need to be with the side batting first as soon as the toss is made and if there is a game where the market before the flip is heavily in favour of one side, it would be shrewd to oppose them in case they lost the toss and were asked to bowl.

That is pretty basic stuff, however. To go more in-depth we need to look at the average first-innings totals in the inaugural World Twenty20, which, handily enough, was staged in South Africa in 2007.

Again, batting was tricky. The average first-innings total was 157 and although there was a 50-50 split between victories for sides batting first and second, the highest successful chase, aside from a freakish 205 by South Africa against a hopeless West Indies in game one, was 164.

Armed with the above knowledge, it is fair to deduce that a target of eight an over will be very difficult indeed. This gives us options when betting in-running during the first innings of a match: backing or laying the batting team if they are on course or not.

All this helps us hugely when playing the match runs market, too. We know the first-innings averages are low, we know eight an over is a tough ask and we know batting second is tricky. Backing under 320 or 310 runs could be a masterstroke on a par with Rajasthan appointing Warne as captain 12 months ago.

But as we said, discipline will be key. The nerves will jangle in the first 1-6 overs when the powerplay is in use. Don't panic. Embrace the fact that you know that runs are going to come. Invariably the market will overreact to a blitz by a batsman in these stages of the game, whether that be match odds or match runs. Don't be afraid to get with the team which is on the receiving end of the onslaught.

Perhaps the most important piece of advice, however, is to check the weather. There are certain to have been punters who got their fingers burnt on matches on the opening weekend which were hit by rain, which in turn helped the bowlers.
It is a must to check if there is rain around because Twenty20 can become Ten10, or even Five5. And it is far easier for a team to chase eight an over for ten overs than it is for 20. That's brains at their most basic.