Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 29 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Ed Hawkins has a handful of angles to help you strike a winning bet on the IPL.

The Indian Premier League can cause confusion and consternation in equal measure. The plethora of stars on show make it hard for punters to make a selection with confidence. There's always one batting genius or bowling wizard who can disrupt the best-laid plans. So here are seven punting tactics to remove the crease from your forehead...


Strategy break means partnership break
It has long been recognised that any sort of stoppage, time out, delay (call it what you want) results in batsmen losing their concentration. The seven-minute strategy break in IPL2 brought such a fact sharply into focus. After the first 10 overs of each innings, the sides will regroup and discuss where they are going right, or wrong. The problem is the batting side goes wrong immediately after. In the 16 completed matches so far, 14 of them have seen a wicket fall within 10 balls of the time out. So, lay the batting team after 10 overs.

Six appeal
Just to be clear, we're not talking about batsmen launching the ball out of the ground for a 'DLF Maximum!'. Well, sort of. The first six overs of each IPL innings is the time, of course, when the fielding restrictions are in place. The powerplay. Some batting sides are better than others at making the most of the restrictions. At the top end of the spectrum we have Deccan and Delhi who average 9.2 and 9 runs per over respectively in the first six. At the other end we have Rajasthan and Bangalore who average 5.5 and 6.6 runs respectively. Make sure you make such statistical knowledge pay on the highest six overs market.

Royals scandal
Batting second in this second season of IPL has proved tricky. Only six sides in 16 matches have managed to win chasing. Following such a trend should prove profitable. But to be more specific, Rajasthan look more vulnerable than most when chasing. Granted, they beat Delhi on Tuesday when set a target but they were making an awful mess of it at one stage. Twice they have failed to chase down soft targets - 134 against Bangalore and 140 against Punjab. They do not deserve our confidence.

Royals scandal II
Staying with the Royals, they are worth taking on every day of the week when it comes to the highest opening partnership market. Here's a list of numbers: 20/8/7/2. Those are their opening partnerships in the tournament. That is an average of just nine. Pathetic you will agree. The problem has been that Rajasthan do not know their best opening combination. They have tried three different opening pairs and none of them have been any good.

Malinga the winner
All punters really want is to know when wickets are most likely to fall. So give thanks to Lasith Malinga, the Mumbai Indians' tearaway fast bowler. When Malinga has the ball in his hand, expect wickets. Thanks to his slingy action and spearing yorkers, batsmen find it particularly hard to smite Malinga for runs. Malinga is joint-top wicket-taker in the IPL with nine victims. More importantly he is the most economical bowler with a rate of 4.35. Of course, the two are inextricably linked. But if Malinga has gone for only four runs in one of his overs, the likelihood of a wicket will have increased at the other end, too because of pressure created. Feel free to play the match runs line or get with Mumbai when you see his wild hair filling the screen.

Kallis no strongman
Musclebound Jacques Kallis has a reputation as being one of the most dependable all-rounders on the planet. That much is true, however, if you are depending on him leaking runs. Kallis has the worst economy rate of any regular bowler in the IPL. Going at an average of 12.27 runs per over, batsmen can be forgiven for reacting like a seal at feeding time when the captain throws him the ball. Likewise, punters should flap excitedly, too slapping their hands on the first computer they can find to back 310 or 320 match runs or more given the probable splurge. Ajit Agarkar, the Kolkata waster, is profligate, too. His economy rate is 15, albeit from just two overs so far. That last sentence may be classed as useless information because really, he should never, ever play again.

Dravid's the nuts, not KP
Okay, okay I know he plays his last match today (Wednesday) but please do not back Kevin Pietersen for top runscorer honours, expecting some emotional farewell to his Bangalore charges. He will be around the [4.00] mark no doubt. But in 20 Twenty20 and IPL matches, KP has top-scored just three times. That should make him around a [6.50] chance. To justify my rant, Rahul Dravid is the value to give you Bang for your buck for the rest of the tournament. With four top-bat honours in both IPL seasons, he is their most consistent performer. With 144 runs at a strike rate of 135 he is one of the best batsmen in IPl2, too. That is when he returns from paternity leave.