Indian Premier League Betting: Mumbai have eyes on prize

Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 09 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Sachin Tendulkar could lead Mumbai to glory

"Picking an IPL winner is darn hard. Rajasthan produced the turn up of turn ups in the inaugural season. Deccan, who finished bottom that year with only two wins, were transformed into champs 12 months later."

The third IPL season begins on Friday and it is another poser for punters as the world's best do battle. Thankfully, Ed Hawkins is on hand to point you in the direction of the value

The Indian Premier League has sparked debate in world cricket like nothing before. If there is not the traditional argument over it eroding the foundation of cricket, there will be a row over money, player ownership, sponsorship, security, media rights. No wonder no-one has any energy left to deliberate the biggest question of all: who is going to win the thing?

The other reason may be that picking an IPL winner is darn hard. Rajasthan produced the turn ups of all turn ups in the inaugural season. Deccan, who finished bottom that year with only two wins, were transformed into champs 12 months later. The uncertainty is put sharply into focus by a winner's market which has the jolly and rank outsider separated by just five points.

There is a trend to IPL winners, however. Both tournaments have been won by sides led by 'good blokes'. Shane Warne at Rajasthan and Adam Gilchrist and Darren 'Boof' Lehmann at Deccan united dispirate groups into tight units. There will come a time when the multi-millionaires from every corner of the globe become more matey and comfortable in each other's company at their respective franchises. Maybe this year. Maybe next.

Another trend which could emerge is that the IPL will be a tough title to defend. The variables are huge over 60 games and 43 days. Bigger still in the context of one Twenty20 match when a contest can turn in the space of one delivery. For those reasons we are ruling out Deccan, who are [7.20].

Rajasthan, too, are not worth backing. At [11.00] they are the least fancied of the eight teams. It is easy to see why. Despite the pull of Warne to punters, he has not attracted top batsmen. Last time no side scored fewer runs and Damien Martyn and Michael Lumb probably won't change that.

Unsurprisingly in such a volatile market, we have to rule out the favourites, Delhi, at [5.10]. It is a decision based on price. Granted, they have the best batting (Sehwag, Gambhir, Dilshan, De Villiers) and their bowling looks special too (Parnell, Nannes, Vettori) but there are worries about their stomach in pressure situations (twice beaten semi-finalists).

Chennai Super Kings are another write off at [7.80]. Rather like the pack of fags from which they did not take their name, they look a wheezy, bloated and aged outfit. Muttiah Muralitharan and Makhya Ntini, the staple of their bowling, are virtual pensioners in such a format, Matthew Hayden is not far behind while key all-rounders Andrew Flintoff and Jacob Oram are injured.

The sides this column does like are Bangalore, Kolkata and Mumbai. Kings XI miss the cut because after careful consideration, their batting, Yuvray Singh aside, lacks the x-factor.

Bangalore, last year's runners-up, are [7.00] and a perfectly acceptable wager. They have the blend of international talent (Kallis, Ross Taylor, Boucher, Steyn, Morgan) with homegrown brilliance in the form of Manish Pandey, Sreevats Goswami, Abhimanyu Mithun and R Vinay Kumar. Their weakness is Kevin Pietersen. With him last time they lost four from six. When he left they went on to the final.

Kolkata's players have been crying out for someone to put their arm around their shoulders. The likeable Dav Whatmore might be just the man. The coach has been working tirelessly to improve a Knight Riders team who came last in 2009 and third bottom in 2008. Brad Hodge is expected to open the batting - top-bat punters take note - while Chris Gayle and Brendon McCullum, when he arrives following Kiwi Test duty, must surely start producing. They are [8.80].

Our top wager is decided by the ball rather than the bat, however. Mumbai, [8.00], who are yet to make the last four, have got all bases covered with Lasith Malinga and Zaheer Khan (death bowling), Harbhajan Singh (spin) and Dwayne Bravo (middle-overs stifler).. They also have some bloke called Tendulkar. And there's never been debate about him.

Ed Hawkins' Best IPL Bet: back Mumbai at [8.00]