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Does the IPL represent the future of cricket or is it a flash in the pan?

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Andrew Hughes is impressed with the all-action entertainment of the IPL so far but wonders whether it will ever hold the long-term global appeal that some think it will

With all this talk of rebel leagues and rival leagues, million dollar rewards, windows and contracts, it seems that cricket has suddenly got very complicated. Well here at Betfair, we are always eager to help. So to cut through all the chatter and noise, there are only two things you need to understand about the current turmoil in the world of bat and ball. Firstly, Twenty20 cricket is a new and exciting form of the game that is proving very popular. And secondly, there are a lot of people who think they can make a huge amount of money out of it.

Of course, you have to speculate to accumulate and the scale of the investment in Twenty20 is staggering. The IPL franchises alone cost between $70m and $110m and on top of that were the millions paid for players at a series of auctions. Meanwhile, Allen Stanford, the Caribbean based millionaire has proposed a $20m match between England and a West Indian All Star XI and is in talks about helping to set up an English Premier League. In this context, his statement that Twenty20 could make cricket more popular than football in the next ten years is not just about a personal vision. For those with a financial stake in the format, it is essential that it continues to expand out of cricket's traditional markets. Basically, that means America or the Far East must buy into Twenty20.

The truth is that at the moment, cricket is a long way off the pace in terms of global popularity. Conservative estimates put the television audience for the last football World Cup Final at around 260 million. By contrast, last year's Twenty20 World Championship Final attracted only 40 million and if India hadn't been involved, you can bet it would be a lot lower. In 2007, nine events, including the Superbowl, the Brazilian Grand Prix, the Champions League Final, the Rugby Union World Cup and even the World Handball Championship attracted bigger global audiences.

But let us suppose that America and the Far East did take to Twenty20 in the way that they never did to Test cricket or the fifty over version. What then? If these new and powerful markets embrace Twenty20 then they will dominate the sport to such an extent that Test cricket will be sidelined. Young talented cricketers won't bother wasting their time on the five day version when there are millions to be made playing Twenty20. It is a worrying prospect.

Just as worrying and far more likely is the alternative scenario: that the Twenty20 boom turns out to be nothing more than hype and froth, rather like the dotcom boom of the late 1990s. There are already rumours that viewing figures for the IPL are below expectations and that up to sixty per cent of spectators have been given free tickets. Franchise owners struggling to get a return on their investment may well want to sign players up on all year round contracts, to play more often, to tour America and the Far East. In that scenario, does anyone believe that the ICC will act firmly to ensure the integrity of world cricket? No, me neither. It has all the makings of a Packer type crisis with none of the benefits that Packer brought about.

The ICC has missed the boat with Twenty20. They should have seen that it would eventually replace fifty over cricket. It is faster, more exciting, shorter and lacks the long periods of tediousness that set in the middle overs of the fifty over game. It also has the potential to expand the sport significantly in countries where cricket is already established.

Had they been bold, they could have replaced all fifty over cricket with Twenty20 at the international level and orchestrated and licensed Twenty20 leagues in every ICC member country. They could have ensured that the new format grew alongside Test cricket and complemented it, rather than overwhelming it. Instead, they dithered, toyed with a few extra matches here and there and as a result have allowed the format to be highjacked by millionaires and cricket administrators on the make. The consequences for the sport could be disastrous.

• Cricket
• Indian Premier League - IPL