The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will win the ICC Champions Trophy

ICC Champions Trophy / The Betfair Contrarian / 30 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Collingwood has been contributing with some invaluable middle-order runs.

England are still [5.7] to lift the ICC Champions trophy because Australia are blocking the path to glory, but the Contrarian expects them to defy all logic once again and return from South Africa victorious...

England's ability to make a mockery of public expectation is becoming the stuff of legend.

Ambitions were limited ahead of the Ashes, only for England to turn it on and snatch the urn back. As a result, hope skyrocketed ahead of the one day series, which turned out pathetically with a humiliating 6-1 reverse. Luckily, the bar was lowered ahead of the ICC Champions Trophy, which Andy Flower's side have never previously won, so predictably they've comfortably reached the semi-finals.

It's England's turn

The competition has taken place five times before and on each occasion, a different team has triumphed: South Africa, New Zealand, India and Sri Lanka (co-champs in 2002), West Indies and Australia, showing that this is a tournament that has no respect for form or consistency. For that streak to continue, past success would rule out holders Australia and New Zealand, although Pakistan, who have never even reached the final before, are also lurking in the semi-finals.

England knocked out the hosts

Englands recent 22-run victory over South Africa ended the hosts participation in the tournament, and knocking out the hosts is a very good omen for success in the competition. In 2006, Australia beat hosts India in their final group game to eliminate them and then went on to win the whole thing, while England's attempts to win on home soil were ended by eventual winners West Indies in the 2004 final.

Australian momentum will count for nothing...

Most teams would be terrified by the prospect of facing opponents who have lost just two of their last 15 one day matches, but England wont be daunted by facing Australia in the semi-finals. In February 2007, they met when Australia were on a run of ten straight victories but England won by 92 runs and then triumphed in their next two clashes. Andrew Strauss' men showed similar disregard for the form book to end a six-match losing run and beat Australia by four wickets in the final ODI of their recent series. That victory was no flash in the pan, as shown by their impressive start to this tournament with victories over Sri Lanka and hosts South Africa. Andrew Strauss described England's batting performance in the South Africa game as the best I can ever remember from England.

...especially now that Lee's purple patch has passed

What caused the drastic and rapid turnaround that saw Australia go from Ashes chumps to one-day dominators? The return of bowler Brett Lee was a huge factor and he ended the series with 12 wickets, three more than any England player managed. However, his form has dropped off in this tournament and he has claimed just three wickets so far, which pales in comparison to Englands Stuart Broad (10) and James Anderson (seven). No other player still involved in the tournament can match the duos tally.

England's record against Pakistan is encouraging

If they knock out Australia, the final should be fairly straightforward, especially as the betting suggests that their most likely opponents are Pakistan, who are [3.4] to win the trophy. England have won their last two one day internationals against them and have only been beaten in two of their last six. The last time the two nations clashed in South Africa in the 2003 World Cup England recorded a comfortable 112-run win.