Champions Trophy Outright Betting: South Africa so solid

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 20 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Graeme Smith leads a tough Proteas side

"South Africa's joke, or should that be choke, status is unfair these days as they are a much tougher unit under the tutelage of Graeme Smith"

Despite a reputation as chokers, the numbers suggest South Africa should be shorter for glory on home soil in the mini World Cup, says Ed Hawkins

The mundanity of England and Australia's seven-match series may well have slaked the thirst for one-day internationals by those who had the misfortune to sit through it but the Champions Trophy, which starts in South Africa on Tuesday, is a pick-me-up of unrivalled proportions.

Despite the 50-over game being the kicking post of the international game, this eight team tournament is one of the best things about it. Forget the World Cup, another endurance test, or the World Twenty20, which has too many meaningless games involving minnows, the Champions Trophy is the real thing.

Arguably the top eight sides being split into two groups of four with the top two progressing to the semi-finals is the format which the World Cup should adopt. No matter. The 15-match schedule, split between Johannesburg and Pretoria, is perfect to hold interest and is one of the great punting projects thanks to a projected draw.

We have a fair idea of which sides will make the semi-finals with the winner of Group A playing the runners-up in group B and vice versa. South Africa are the favourites at [3.70] with Australia next best at [4.70]. The outright market is spot on with those two in Group B and A respectively and scheduled to meet in the final.

The full groups look like this (prices to win section):

Group A
Australia [2.66]
India [2.96]
Pakistan [4.10]
West Indies [14.00]

Group B
South Africa [2.02]
Sri Lanka [3.50]
New Zealand [6.80]
England [8.20]

The first thing to say is that there appears to be only two wagers to recommend with regard to the outright market. They are to back South Africa, the best one-day side in the world, and Sri Lanka, who are an inflated [7.80].

One could be forgiven for finding a bet on the hosts hard to swallow. Perennial underachievers, South Africa have gone into every one-day tournament of the last 10 years as strong contenders but have only hurtful punchlines to show for it. Their joke, or should that be choke, status is unfair these days, however as they are a much tougher unit under the tutelage of Graeme Smith.

The statistics are hard to argue with. In the last two years they have a win percentage of 71%, five clicks higher than rivals India. At home, they are close to unbeatable, losing only seven of their last 46 and boasting a win percentage of 81 over the last 24 months.

They have three batsmen - AB de Villiers, Smith and Herschelle Gibbs - in the top 10 in the ICC one-day batting rankings, Jacques Kallis just one place outside and JP Duminy who should eventually force his way in and stay there for years to come.

Sri Lanka catch the eye because with only England, [18.00], and New Zealand (the Kiwis have great bowling options but look limited with the bat), [20.00], to beat to qualify for the last four, one should be able to lay off at much skinnier odds once they complete a section stroll. In the semis they could meet Australia, who they have had the wood over in this competition before.

Australia are ones to avoid purely on their price. They are too skinny after a long tour of England and their crushing of Andrew Strauss' side has rather flattered them. They are not the same side that won this competition last time out.

If there is a concern over Sri Lanka it is the same worry which affects India and Pakistan. The sub-continental sides have struggled on South Africa's fast pitches historically. Combined, the three have a win percentage of 38 there.

Of course India have to be respected on pure batting talent alone. But one is beginning to get the feeling that they are always to slight for these big global shindigs. The weight of money coming from India has inevitably forced their price lower than it should be at [5.20]. There is not much in it, though and if you can get odds pushing towards [6.00] you will have a reasonable wager.

Complete write-offs are England, dazed and confused, and West Indies who are fielding a virtual reserve side. There will be no Chris Gayle, Shiv Chanderpaul, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Dwayne Bravo, Jerome Taylor etc. For that the tournament is poorer but it should still be an absolute thriller.