ICC Champions Trophy / Andrew Hughes / 20 September 2009 /

South Africa are big favourites to win the Champions Trophy. Andrew Hughes assesses their chances and asks whether Sri Lanka, New Zealand or England can spring a surprise in Group B.

South Africa

You can look as hard as you like at the South African squad but you will struggle to find any weaknesses. Their batting line-up is classy, powerful and long, with four all-rounders following the five front-line batsmen, of whom key man A B De Villiers is particularly dangerous. Dale Steyn and Wayne Parnell are impressive quick bowlers, both with the new ball and at the death and Johan Botha and Roelof van der Merwe offer twenty overs of miserly spin bowling. And they happen to be the best fielding side in the world.

Punters scratching around for a weakness may be tempted to oppose them on the grounds that they always 'choke' in major tournaments. However, there is a chance that the 'chokers' tag could work in their favour this time. South African supporters have become so accustomed to disappointments that expectations are likely to be lower than usual this time round. In any case, it is surely a dangerous strategy to oppose the best team in the tournament on their home patch, simply because one or two previous South African teams have let themselves down. Graeme Smith's men are [3.7] to win the thing and [2.06] to top Group B. It is difficult to argue with those odds.

New Zealand

There is no doubt that the Black Caps have some world-class performers. Brendon McCullum, Jesse Ryder and Ross Taylor are stroke-playing batsmen who would walk into most international first XIs. Daniel Vettori is one of the best one-day bowlers in the world and the return of Shane Bond gives New Zealand a real cutting edge with the new ball and a threat in the death overs. At [19.5] in the tournament winners market, they are likely to attract plenty of interest, given that they will only have to beat England and Sri Lanka to reach the semi-finals.

Their problem, as ever, is a lack of strength in depth. The likes of Martin Guptil, Grant Elliot and Neil Broom are someway short of top class and this lack of depth to the side places enormous pressure on the established stars. Just as worrying is the form of two of their big hitters, Brendon McCullum and Jacob Oram, both of whom have been struggling for some time. If you are going to take that [19.5] it might be worth laying them off at shorter odds should they reach the semi-finals; the point at which they are likely to make their exit from the tournament.

Sri Lanka

The appointment of Kumar Sangakkara as captain was a good move and in the long term, his intelligent and dynamic leadership is likely to take the team to a new level. And besides the captain, there is a lot to like about their current squad. Tillakaratne Dilshan is the best limited overs opener in the world and the trio of Mutiah Muralitheran, Ajantha Mendis and Lasith Malinga give Sangakkara plenty of high class bowling options.

However, rather like New Zealand, the Sri Lankans are lacking in depth, particularly in the batting department. A fragile lower middle order and a long tail put enormous pressure on the big names, preventing them from playing with complete freedom. The resurgent Thilan Samaraweera is therefore a key figure. A much-improved batsman over the last twelve months, his role will be as a rebuilder and a finisher. If he has a good tournament, he could make up for some of Sri Lanka's deficiencies and make their odds of [8.0] for the competition and [3.5] to win Group B look generous.

England

Low on confidence, lacking in dynamic attacking batsmen and devoid of a cutting edge with the ball, only the West Indies parlous state prevents England from being the outsiders of eight for this tournament. The absence of Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff means that they will be without their two best one-day players and makes the refusal to pick the aggressive Jonathan Trott even more baffling. In their absence, it is the senior men Paul Collingwood and particularly Andrew Strauss who hold the key to England emerging from this tournament with some semblance of dignity.

If you were looking for positives, you could say that the team do bat quite deeply, with Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann and Adil Rashid all capable of smashing late runs. But then they need to, given the timidity of the batsmen who precede them. With the ball too, they lack dynamism, James Anderson and Ryan Sidebottom becoming innocuous in the absence of swing and Broad looking far less convincing in the limited overs formats. Oh and they are rubbish at fielding too. The men in red are [19.5] to win the tournament and [8.6] to win Group B.

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