ICC Champions Trophy / Andrew Hughes / 20 September 2009 /

Australia are favourites to win Group A but face some stiff opposition from India and Pakistan. Andrew Hughes talks us through the first four contenders in this year's Champions Trophy

Australia

Their mauling of England in the Natwest Series briefly took Australia back to the top of the ICC's One Day International Rankings. But are they really as good as all that? Punters should be wary of giving them too much credit for defeating a lacklustre England team. For sure, the Aussies are solid and reliable. Their new recruits, Tim Paine, Cameron White and Callum Ferguson have done well, they bat deep, field well and in Brett Lee have the deadliest fast bowler in the world.

Do they have any weaknesses? Well, Lee apart, the bowling looks rather tame. In addition, whilst their batting line-up is reliable and steady, it is short of the explosive power that you need to win this kind of tournament. Paine, Ferguson, Shane Watson, Michael Clarke and Mike Hussey are accumulators and White's dynamic batting is likely to feature lower down the order. Much will therefore depend on Ricky Ponting, the one man capable of scoring quickly without taking extravagant risks. Australia are a workmanlike outfit, who won't let anyone down but at [4.7] to win the tournament and [2.66] to take Group A they look a little short.

India

There is no Virender Sehwag this time and young star Rohit Sharma misses out but it is a sign of India's strength in depth that they are still able to field the tournament's best batting line-up. The return of Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid to the one-day fold has added backbone to an exciting young team and their only batting concern is how to accommodate all of their stars in the same team. Their bowling is also nicely balanced, with RP Singh and Ishant Sharma backed up by Asish Nehra who did well in South Africa during this year's IPL, as well as the highly effective spin-duo of Harbhajan Singh and Amit Mishra.

If you are looking for an Indian weakness, be wary of falling into lazy thinking. For instance, have no truck with the cliché that India won't play well outside the subcontinent. They had an excellent World Cup campaign in South Africa in 2003, won the World Twenty20 here a couple of years back and their squad is full of globetrotting cricket superstars. Fielding is likely to be their only problem, with a number of this squad being less than fluent movers in the field. They look a decent bet in both the tournament winners market at [5.3] and the Group A winners market at [2.94]

Pakistan

There is plenty to like about this Pakistan team. The restoration of Imran Nazir to the top of the order makes them a dangerous batting prospect during the first fifteen overs; key all-rounder Shahid Afridi is back to his best and the return of Mohammed Asif to partner Umar Gul with the new ball gives captain Younis Khan a lot more firepower. Add in the class of Mohammed Yousuf and the emergence of talented young left-armer Mohammed Aamer and you could make a good argument for taking the [8.2] on offer about Pakistan winning the tournament.

Not everything in the garden is rosy, however. Nazir and Kamran Akmal are free scoring openers but they take a few chances along the way. And though his confidence is back, Afridi needs to demonstrate that he can still turn ten over bursts into match-winning centuries. There are also persistent rumours of cliques and discontent, revolving mainly around former captain Shoaib Malik. If you feel Pakistan are too risky a proposition as tournament winners, you might want to consider backing them at [4.0] to win Group A.

West Indies

Or, more accurately, West Indies 'B'. The ongoing dispute between the WICB and the players' union is too convoluted and frankly too dull to get into here. The key thing for punters is that it has resulted in the withdrawal of just about all of the West Indian first team. The absence of Chris Gayle, Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Dwayne Bravo, Jerome Taylor and Fidel Edwards has not only robbed the tournament of some of its excitement, it means that the West Indies have virtually no chance of progressing to the semi-finals.

All-rounder Darren Sammy is probably the best player in a squad made up of rookies and has-beens and that tells you all you need to know about their chances. A similarly weakened team lost 3-0 at home to Bangladesh last month and in their pre-tournament warm up against the hosts last week they managed to lose by 188 runs. Three heavy defeats and an early flight home beckon. They are available at [42.0] in the tournament winners market, but you would probably need an extra nought in there before you considered clicking on the 'back' button.

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