Champions Trophy Betting: South Africa v Sri Lanka

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 21 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tillakaratne Dilshan is value to top score

South Africa and Sri Lanka meet in the first match of the Champions Trophy at Centurion and the toss could be crucial in a day-night affair, says Ed Hawkins

Team news
With South Africa and Sri Lanka in Group B, they could well meet again in the final to bring the Champions Trophy to an end as it started. The reason for such a good prognosis for the two sides is their balance and strength in depth.

South Africa will be without Herschelle Gibbs because of a side injury but Hashim Amla, who hit a brilliant ton the last time Gibbs missed out on a 50-over game, could come straight in to open the innings.

Sri Lanka are sweet with M&M - Murali and Mendis - but may not have room for Nuwan Kulasekara, a former No1-ranked bowler, and the excellent Thilan Samaraweera, who averages 50 in ODIs.

With Dale Steyn and Wayne Parnell taking the new ball and bowling at the death, South Africa probably have the edge as far as pace is concerned. Lasith Malinga is a danger from one end only for Sri Lanka.

Pitch conditions
The match is under lights which could make the toss crucial if recent results are anything to go by. The last four day-night games have been won by the side batting first. Overall, five of the eight games have gone to the team which doesn't have to bat beneath the beam. The average total batting first for those victories is 258.

Match odds
South Africa have won four of their last five meetings against Sri Lanka in 50-over cricket, a fact that will soothe them considering the last time the sides met the Proteas were dumped out of the World Twenty20.

Still, the hosts are likely to be too short for most at [1.56] because of the nature of that defeat. They were tied in knots by Muttiah Muralitharan and Ajantha Mendis, exposing South Africa's weakness against top-quality spin on a turning track.

SuperSport Park is not expected to turn but although Sri Lanka, who are [2.72], have never won there they should trade shorter in-running, particularly if they were to bat first and Tillakaratne Dilshan and Sanath Jayasuriya got them off to a flier on a sound surface.

Top batsman

Graeme Smith can make a statement that this South Africa side are a new breed and not susceptible to the wobbles of old with runs in the tournament curtain raiser. As an opener, Smith is obviously more likely to take top-bat honous but there are stats in his favour, too.

The left-hander has top-scored for his side three times in their last six visits to SuperSport Park and looks to be the call at [4.60]. With no Gibbs, Smith will charge himself with getting the innings off to a fast start, making use of the powerplay overs.

Further down, there is much to like about AB de Villiers and Jacques Kallis but there always is. Besides, if we were going to bet outside the openers we would side with the excellent JP Duminy, who at [7.20], will be value throughout the tournament.

For Sri Lanka, there is no point looking past Dilshan. The opener loves South African wickets having dominated IPL2 and he has a good record against the national side. Three times he has top-scored in the four meetings, although one of those was shared honours. He is [4.60].

Featured market
With the average runs per match at SuperSport Park being 408, laying 250 runs or more in the first-innings could be the way to go. This venue is not as good to bat on as the other tournament venue, Johannesburg. It is a difference which needs to be realised quickly. There have been only three centuries scored in the last nine ODIs at Centurion.