Champions Trophy Betting: South Africa v New Zealand

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 23 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Daniel Vettori is the key man for New Zealand

The nerves are already jangling for the hosts and they will not fancy facing the Kiwi spinners on a slow and turning SuperSport Park surface, says Ed Hawkins

Team news
South Africa, in a game (starts 07.30GMT) they must win to keep their qualification hopes for the semi-finals in their own hands, are expected to welcome back Herschelle Gibbs, who has had a rib injury. Gibbs missed the defeat to Sri Lanka and his opening slot went to Hashim Amla, who failed with the bat.

Other than that one change, the tournament hosts are unlikely to start ripping up their XI and should keep faith with a side that Mickey Arthur, the coach, says will be fine "if they go through their processes."

New Zealand have Shane Bond back in the fold after his ban for playing ICL cricket was revoked. With the paceman in the side their win-loss ratio rise from 1.08 to 1.28. They have other pace options in the form of Daryl Tuffey and Ian Butler, but they would be wise to pick the extra spinner in Jeetan Patel with the SuperSport Park wicket taking turn.

Pitch conditions
Spinners Roelof van der Merwe and Ajantha Mendis both found the surface to their liking. Slow and low it resembles a sub-continental track. This game is not under lights, which is a blessing for South Africa after they failed to do their homework when bowling first against Sri Lanka. The last five day-nighters have now been one by the side batting first.

In day games, the average first-innings score in the last 10 matches is 234. But there have been some low scores indeed. Four sides have posted 200 or fewer.

Match odds
If confidence in this South Africa side was shaky because of their reputation for implosion in the biggest tournaments, then defeat to Sri Lanka in the first match will have well and truly rocked it. There are unlikely to be many backing them at [1.42], particularly with the threat of spin looming over the hosts again.

Daniel Vettori and Patel could combine to tie Graeme Smith's sides in knots similar to when the pair took four wickets 26 runs in Mumbai in a recent meeting. Indeed New Zealand have won three of the last five head-to-heads.

New Zealand are [3.20] and that certainly looks a price to trade. Interestingly it needed Sri Lanka to score 92 wicketless runs after the dismissal of Sanath Jayasuriya for their odds to fall from [3.20] to even money.

The market might move a little quicker this time with punters unsure of the South Africans. They themselves will be nervous. If they fail to win this match they will have to rely on Sri Lanka beating both New Zealand and England, defeating Andrew Strauss' side themselves and then hope the Kiwis lose to England. Only then will South Africa be able to qualify, and on run rate at that.

Top batsman
Jacques Kallis has the best record of South Africa's top six against New Zealand. He averages 42 against them and has the same mark at SuperSport Park. Coming in first wicket down, Kallis may be behind the eight ball so it may pay to look at the openers. Smith averages 34 against the Kiwis and 69 at the venue while Gibbs's figures read 37 and nine respectively. That last number will put you off although do bear in mind he has a century against them last time out.

For New Zealand, there is little point looking outside of Brendon McCullum, Jesse Ryder and Ross Taylor. Ryder can be a little hit and miss, McCullum top-scored the last time the sides met while Taylor is something of a Mr Reliable of international cricket.

Featured market
With South Africa on edge and Gibbs suffering a poor record at the ground, New Zealand might be worth following at [1.90] for highest opening partnership.