ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 22 September 2009 /

Pakistan, deathly slow starters in tournaments, could lose to West Indies in Jo'burg on Wednesday and produce the shock of the tournament, says Ed Hawkins

Team news
Pakistan captain Younis Khan has been ruled out of his side's opening game (12.30GMT, Wednesday) because of a fractured finger. Younis was injured in Pakistan's warm-up defeat of Sri Lanka in Benoni on Friday. Shahid Afridi is set to lead in his absence.

Umar Akmal, the younger brother of wicketkeeper Kamran, could take Younis' place in a strong batting order after a half-century against Sri Lanka. Mohammad Yousuf, Shoaib Malik and Misbah-ul-Haq should be able to bat with freedom given Pakistan could bat as low as No 9. Fast bowler Mohammad Asif is back in the fold after his suspension and joins Naved-ul-Hasan and Umar Gul in an impressive limited-overs attack.

If Pakistan are weakened without Younis, it is unlikely to make a difference against a second-string West Indies side. There is no Chris Gayle, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Shiv Chanderpaul, Dwayne Bravo, Jerome Taylor or Fidel Edwards.

Darren Sammy, a decent all-rounder, is one name you should recognise along with tearaway paceman Tino Best, a blast from the past. Batsmen Devon Smith and Andre Fletcher are well-known, too but the rest, including skipper Floyd Reifer, are not even household names on their respective islands.

Pitch conditions
Unlike SuperSport Park, there is no discernible bias for day-night matches in terms of the toss. In the 13 floodlit international matches played at The Wanderers, there is 7-6 split in favour of the side batting second. We should expect runs. In the last four matches a side has scored more than 300 four times. The average first-innings score in the 13 day-night games played is 233. The weather forecast is set fair, too.

Match odds
West Indies should be grateful that it is Pakistan they face first in a tournament which they will struggle not to be embarrassed in thanks to the dispute between the board and their first-choice XI.

Pakistan, World Twenty20 champions, start slowly in tournaments. Not my words, those of the Younis, the captain. In the Twenty20 Pakistan lost two of their first three matches as they took time to find their feet.

It is something of a trend. In the last World Cup they lost their first two matches, to West Indies and Ireland.

With such a record it is impossible to recommend them at odds as short as [1.14]. So, can a case be made for this rag tag bunch of West Indians, who are closer to that Irish side in terms of ability?

Just about. Pakistan have a horrible record at this venue, losing both of their two games played. They were well-beaten, too being bowled out for just 109 and 153. On both occasions they couldn't live with the pace of the pitch.

In Best West Indies have one of the quickest bowlers of the tournament, if not the most wayward. But Sammy is more than useful with the ball and the pair could cause problems. Back West Indies at [7.60].

Top batsman
Look no further than Kamran Akmal for the top-bat bet of the day. With no Younis he looks tremendous value at around the [4.50] mark. West Indies' bowlers have had a tendency to go round the park in the warm-ups and Akmal, who should open, can make them pay. For West Indies, Dale Richards looks to be in decent nick. He hit 59 off 60 balls opening the innings against Sri Lanka in the build-up.

Featured market
The gulf in odds on the opening partnership market is not justified. Pakistan are [1.46] with West Indies [2.10]. Granted Akmal is a class act but Imran Nazir, his partner, is not and he could go early on.

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