Champions Trophy Betting: Pakistan v New Zealand

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 02 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Younis Khan faces a tough New Zealand outfit

A tricky batting wicket and toss bias could dictate the winner of the second semi-final but there are still plenty of other markets to play, says Ed Hawkins

Team news
Just in time for the semi-final contest with New Zealand in Johannesburg on Saturday, Pakistan appear to have hit upon their most potent line-up. Out has gone Imran Nazir, the opening batsmen, and in has come in for the graceful, in bowling action at least, Mohammad Asif.

The shuffle has allowed Shahid Afridi to move up to open the innings with Kamran Akmal, giving Pakistan the potential for the most explosive and unpredictable No 1-2 pairing in the tournament. A fast start on a tricky Wanders pitch could make all the difference. Afridi's hitting further down the order may not be missed. Misbah has come back into contention and could replace Umar Akmal.

New Zealand, as ever, have injury worries. If there is a more brittle international side we've yet to see them - probably because they're still in quarantine. Grant Elliott has a busted thumb so Scott Styris stands by. New Zealand are already without Jacob Oram, Jesse Ryder and Daryl Tuffey.

Pitch conditions
The Wanderers has produced alarming assistance for the pacemen. There has been seam, swing, uneven bounce and a good deal of pace to boot. This suits neither batting team. The Kiwi batting collapsed against England but managed to get over the line while Pakistan had a wobble of their own against West Indies, losing five wickets chasing 134. The average first-innings score in the tournament is just 202 and three sides have been shot out for 146 or fewer.

Match odds
With a dodgy batting strip, a toss bias (four of the six games have been won by the side bowling first) and rain forecast, it does not take a genius to work out that this could be a low-scoring, nail-munching encounter. Pakistan are as skinny as [1.62] with New Zealand at [2.58].

A wise sage would take the latter and hope to trade out as the pitch proves to be a 'great leveller'. Indeed, it is difficult to justify the gulf in prices when it is the bowlers who look certain to be doing most of the damage.

Undoubtedly Pakistan have the better bowlers. Umar Gul, Asif, Rana Naved and Mohammed Aamer are a formidable quartet but New Zealand are no slouches in this department, either. Shane Bond, Kyle Mills and Ian Butler are more than capable of getting the Pakistan side to jump around on a wicket they will find alien.

Pakistan have played on the track once to New Zealand's two visits and that could be key. As could the record of Mills and Bond causing Younis Khan's side heartache in the past. These sides have not met in 50-over cricket for three years but when they did, the Kiwi pace pair wrecked Pakistan with five victims between them.

New Zealand have won the last four head-to-heads and to make it five they will have to win the toss. If they do and bowl first, they could be trading at even money with Mills and Bond likely to cause the Pakistan top order problems.

Top batsman
Mohammad Yousuf and Scott Styris top scored the last time these sides met. However, the value in the respective top-bat markets could be to play Any Other Batsman for both sides. In the six games so far, five times a batsman coming in at No 7 or lower has made a 50. Not including the bowlers at [5.10] we have Misbah, Umar and Naved on our side for Pakistan while Styris, Daniel Vettori and James Franklin are priced at [5.50] for New Zealand.

Featured market
With opening batsmen finding life tough at The Wanderers, a lay of one of the master blasters (Brendon McCullum, Afridi or Akmal) at around [3.75] to score a 50 could be the way to go.