Champions Trophy Betting: New Zealand v Sri Lanka

ICC Champions Trophy / Andrew Hughes / 26 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

The pressure is on for Kumar Sangakkara

"The New Wanderers pitch evens the contest up considerably. On Friday, it drew the sting from Murali, Mendis and even Lasith Malinga and, aside from Kulasekara, the Sri Lankans were unable to exploit the seam friendly conditions."

England's shock victory on Friday night blew Group B wide open. Andrew Hughes previews the elimination bout between Sri Lanka and New Zealand

Conditions

It has been just like old times watching the games played at the New Wanderers in this tournament. A fast, bouncy wicket with a healthy covering of grass is almost unheard of these days but it has provided extra spice to the competition. Pakistan, West Indies and England have all enjoyed themselves on it and any seam or swing bowler worth his salt would be itching to get the new ball in these circumstances. With sunny weather forecast for Saturday and Sunday, the ball might not swing that much but it still represents a stiff task for batsmen, particularly against the new ball and any score significantly above 200 is likely to be a winning one.

Team News

The nature of the pitch, rather than form issues, is likely to determine the make-up of these two teams. New Zealand made a tactical error in not picking Jeetan Patel for the dry wicket at Centurion but he is unlikely to play here. Room might be made for another seamer, either Ian Butler or James Franklin, although the Black Caps will be concerned not to weaken their already fragile batting

Sri Lanka will be equally keen to get another seam bowler into their side, but they too would not want to weaken their batting. They could draft in either Thilan Thushara or Damika Prasad, but that would mean thinking the unthinkable and leaving out Ajantha Mendis or Muttiah Muralitheran, neither of whom was effective on this pitch against England.

Match Odds

This is pretty much an elimination contest. If New Zealand lose, they are out and if Sri Lanka lose, they would have to rely on England winning both their remaining games by hefty margins. On form and on paper, this should be a comfortable win for Kumar Sangakkara's men. They are the better of the two teams and recently beat the Black Caps in the Compaq Cup.

However, the New Wanderers pitch evens the contest up considerably. On Friday, it drew the sting from Murali, Mendis and even Lasith Malinga and, aside from Kulasekara, the Sri Lankans were unable to exploit the seam friendly conditions. By contrast, New Zealand have plenty of bowlers used to performing on grassy pitches and at [2.82] are well worth backing. The Sri Lankans will need to come up with a plan B if they are to avoid making a swift exit from a tournament that started so well for them.

Top Batsman

On this tricky batting track, you need grafters and nudgers rather than classy stroke players, as Paul Collingwood, Eoin Morgan and Umar Akmal have demonstrated during the last few days. It also helps not to be exposed to the hard new ball and so we can probably temporarily abandon the usually sensible strategy of concentrating on the top order.

Thilan Samaraweera is a sensible, resilient batsman who played his part in rebuilding the Sri Lankan innings on Friday and is just the sort of player to count on when the going gets tough. He is not as famous as some of those who precede him and so might be available at [5.0] or even higher. For New Zealand, it might pay to side with one of the lesser lights in the middle order, perhaps Grant Elliot or Neil Broom, both of whom should be available at decent odds.

Featured Market

The highest score on this pitch during the first two games was 62 and it could be worth backing 'Under 82.5 Runs' in the Highest Individual Score market at [2.0] or better.