ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 29 September 2009 /

India must beat West Indies in convincing fashion and hope Pakistan do them a favour if they are to qualify for the semis. Can they do it? Ed Hawkins analyses the market

Team news
India picked two spinners for their washout in Centurion against Australia which has put them in peril of an early flight home. But in Johannesburg, it is the seamers who have been to the fore so one from Amit Mishra and Harbhajan Singh is likely to make way for RP Singh.

MS Dhoni's men appear to be lacking confidence in the pace department which has undermined their bid for glory. Ishant Sharma went at more than seven an over against Australia and they are sorely missing Zaheer Khan, the leader of the attack.

There are concerns over the fitness of Rahul Dravid, who left the field with a calf problem on Monday. His absence would leave India severely depleted in the batting department and Yusuf Pathan would have to be drafted in. In terms of specialists, it could be argued that India would have an XI containing only four batsmen.

West Indies have performed admirably in the tournament so far given they were billed as whipping boys. They pushed Australia close and are expected to name an unchanged XI.

Pitch conditions
Javed Miandad, the former Pakistan batsman, has called the pitches "dangerous" for this tournament. Clearly he was referring to the wicket at The Wanderers, which has had uneven bounce in the first innings of games before flattening out later. West Indies were bowled out for 133 on this ground against Pakistan and then later reduced Australia to 174-7 in the first dig. India will be relieved that the sun should be shining throughout the duration.

Match odds
Ordinarily we would consider a back-to-lay bet of the outsiders in a game where one side, India, are priced so prohibitively. MS Dhoni's team are [1.11] with West Indies [9.40].

But that course of action would have to be ruled out until the toss at least. If West Indies were to bowl first then they would certainly be worth a nibble. David Bernard and Kemar Roach have made names for themselves as fast bowlers and although they have been expensive, they have proved more than capable of exploiting favourable conditions.

If India were to bowl first, then they will go all out for a crushing victory. They need Pakistan, their old rivals, to do them a favour against Australia and then win comfortably against the Windies if they are to qualify. Conspiracy theories abound.

The mathematics would then get quite complicated but there is an excellent explanation here
However, to hear West Indies captain Floyd Reifer speak, one could be forgiven for reckoning it might be irrelevant. "From the first game to this one we have gotten better, as a team and as individuals," he said. "Looking at the two games we've played, against Pakistan if we had 40 more runs, things could have been different. And against Australia we were in the game into the 40th over. It's been a great effort."

Top batsman
On a tasty surface and the potential for West Indies struggling to keep their performance levels up, it is probable that Reifer's side could be blown away by a highly-motivated India. It has happened so often in the past when 'minnows' have performed above expectations.

To that end, Darren Sammy, coming in at No 7, could be a bit of value on Any Other Batsman which should settle at around [6.00]. Andre Fletcher, Windies' top bat in the tournament, is [5.00] and is striking the ball nicely.

With doubts over Dravid, punters will surely reckon that Sachin Tendulkar rates a decent wager at [3.75]. But don't discount Suresh Raina, who is a class act in the middle order at [6.00].

Featured market
West Indies should be around even money to win on the handicap, which is set at 70 runs or seven wickets. It is a corker of a bet.

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