Champions Trophy Betting: India v Pakistan

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 25 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

The stats says Sachin Tendulkar should score runs

It is one of the most fiercely contested games in world sport, but heart must rule head when it comes to betting. Ed Hawkins tries to find some sensible ploys for an explosive grudge match

Team news
No player wants to miss the derby match (starts 12.30 GMT, Saturday) which makes the Old Firm look like a tea party. The purists, punters and neutrals will not want to miss out either for a contest which can so often be explosive.

To that end, Pakistan captain Younis Khan has been desperate to recover from a fractured little finger. He missed the match against West Indies to make sure he was ready for the tribal battle. Pakistan will rely on teenager Umar Akmal and Mohammed Aamer with bat and ball respectively and it remains to be seen how they cope in such a high-pressure game.

India are not at full strength. Yuvraj Singh has been ruled out of the tournament with a broken finger. There is no Virender Sehwag, either. Thanks to Yuvraj's injury, India could draft in Gautam Gambhir as an opener with Rahul Dravid or Sachin Tendulkar moving down to number three. They will also choose between Ishant Sharma, RP Singh, Ashish Nehra and Amit Mishra for three bowling spots.

Pitch conditions
Centurion has taken spin in the two games so far. Roelof van der Merwe, the South Africa spinner, has found it particularly to his liking. Yet spin is not such an important factor when two sub-continental sides meet because they are so used to playing it. What will be key is the toss. South Africa's defeat to Sri Lanka made it five straight wins for the side batting first at SuperSport Park.

Match odds
Not surprisingly India are the [1.85] favourites for this contest. In their last 20 meetings in all forms of the game which have produced a result, India have won 12. Indeed, Pakistan have not beaten India in an ICC tournament since the 2004 Champions Trophy.

But there is reason enough to believe that Pakistan are value at [2.12], in large part because of the importance of the toss, which will make hardened punters reckon this is an even money affair. If Pakistan were to bat first and make use of the lights when bowling, fast men Aamer, Umar Gul and Rana Naved-ul-Hasan will be difficult to handle.

One could make a case for the Pakistan bowlers troubling India no matter in what innings they operate. India have a habit of misfiring in global tournaments when the pressure is on - the World Twenty20 this summer and the last World Cup two good examples.

Added pressure comes in the form of knowing they cannot really afford to lose here if they are not to make another early exit. They would have to beat Australia and then get their calculators out to check run rates. Pakistan, if they win, are as good as in the semis.

Top batsman
No wonder Younis has been so keen to make this match. In the last three meetings against India he has hit two centuries. Perversely, he does not have the best record of the Pakistani batsmen in terms of top-scoring in recent 50-over cricket. That honour goes to Shoaib Malik, so often underrated and undervalued on almost any market going. He has top scored three times in the last five meetings.

Misbah-ul-Haq is expected to miss out with Younis returning. That is something of a shame because in the two Twenty20 meetings on South Africa soil against India, he top scored.

For India there can be only one bet. Tendulkar remains a cut above and although he should be viewed by bettors as just another batsman who needs stats to back him up, when they are in his favour the confidence flows. Tendulkar has top scored in two of his last three visits to Centurion, and one of those was against Pakistan in 2003 when India won by six wickets.

Featured market
The [1.73] about India having the highest opening partnership is not short enough. Opener Imran Nazir is out of his depth it would appear for Pakistan.