Champions Trophy Betting: India v Australia

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 27 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

MS Dhoni made some errors in the field v Pakistan

Two well-backed sides for glory meet in Centurion but Ed Hawkins fears that punters could have done their dough after shoddy early efforts

Team news
India are once more on the verge of disappointing in a global tournament when expectation weighed heavy on their shoulders. The previous third favourites for the Champions Trophy will go out if they are beaten by Australia in Centurion.

Expect changes to the India team which was beaten by Pakistan in a typically thrilling grudge match on Saturday. Harbhajan Singh looks vulnerable after recording figures of 1-76. Amit Mishra, his fellow spinner, could be his replacement.

MS Dhoni may also want to consider Praveen Kumar. The paceman has six wickets in his last two meetings against Australia.

Australia are expected to be unchanged after beating West Indies in their opening game. They did not convince, however and had Mitchell Johnson not smashed 75 off 47 balls they could have suffered the ignominy of defeat. There is no Nathan Bracken for Australia in this tournament but his replacement, Peter Siddle, slotted in effortlessly by taking 2-37.

Pitch conditions
Showers are forecast for Centurion for this day-night affair, further clouding the issue for punters. A reduced-over game will play into the hands of the side batting second but, then again, there is a heavy bias in favour of the side batting first in floodlit matches. Pakistan's victory over India was the sixth straight win for a team bowling under lights at this venue.

It is common sense, therefore to save any match odds bets until the toss. But once it is made, the above stats should make it pretty clear which way to go.

Match odds
There is a suspicion that Australia and India are no way near as good as the pre-tournament market rated them. The Aussies struggled against West Indies while India appeared incapable of doing anything right against Pakistan.

It could be a case of lesser of two evils with India at [2.16] and Australia as skinny as [1.78] but, of course, we are wary of getting involved with MS Dhoni's team until the toss even if one cannot help but feel this should be close to an even money affair.

Certainly Australia cannot be backed without the toss going their way. They conceded an incredible 36 extras against West Indies. Could soft England have given them an inflated sense of their own worth? Possibly. Tim Paine may find runs harder to come by up top, Michael Clarke is struggling with a back problem while Brett Lee was disappointingly expensive.

India's catalogue of errors against Pakistan was alarming. Their batsmen were going along nicely in pursuit of a monster total but threw their wickets away - step forward Gautam Gambhir, Suresh Raina and Rahul Dravid.

More worrying was Dhoni's decision to hold back Harbhajan. Pakistan lost their third wicket in the 15th over with the score at 65 and soon after Malik the skipper called on part-timers Virat Kohli and Yusuf Pathan. It allowed Pakistan crucial recovery time.

Top batsman
Sachin Tendulkar has the strongest case of the India batsmen on their top runscorer market. In the last five meetings he has top scored three times. Indeed, when the sides met in a one-day series two years ago, he was India's top bat in the series with 278.

Not including absent friends, Michael Clarke obliged in the same department for Australia in that series but he should be swerved because of fitness concerns.

Since that series, which was won 4-2 by Australia, the sides did battle in the Commonwealth Bank Series. The runscoring was shared around by Australia with Ricky Ponting, James Hopes and Clarke taking honours.

Featured market
India's running between the wickets against Pakistan was shaky enough to reckon that the [2.20] about more than 1.5 run outs could hold interest for the duration.