Champions Trophy Betting: England v South Africa

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 26 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Eoin Morgan celebrates England's victory over Sri Lanka

Could England be gifted another victory with helpful conditions in Centurion? Ed Hawkins crunches the numbers to find out

Team news
England are unlikely to make any changes to the side which shocked Sri Lanka in Johannesburg in their meeting with South Africa (starts 12.30GMT, Sunday) but they would be wise to consider it. The Wanderers helped the bowlers and England picked four seamers. They may not need that many at SuperSport Park.

Spin has been prevalent so far and a case could be made for Adil Rashid replacing Luke Wright. Certainly New Zealand regretted not fielding two spinners against South Africa there. And what about Ravi Bopara coming back in for Wright?

South Africa could make only one change after beating New Zealand by five wickets with 53 balls remaining last time out. Herschelle Gibbs is getting closer to a return from an abdominal strain. Hashim Amla will be the man to miss out.

Pitch conditions
England were not given a trial by spin by Murali and Mendis but they might not be so lucky against Roelof van der Merwe and Johan Botha. Against the Kiwis, the pair strangled the innings, taking three wickets between them for 79 runs in 19 overs.

The toss will move the market. With the last five day-night matches won by the side batting first it looks pivotal. Could England be about to get another huge slice of luck with conditions?

Match odds
First things first, England were hugely fortunate to turn up in Jo'burg on Friday for their clash with Sri Lanka and wonder whether a green seamer from Headingley had been specially flown in. The surface suited their bowlers perfectly. Indeed, it would have been an all-time low point for English ODI cricket if they had not won, and there have been many disappointing efforts in recent years.

Andrew Strauss' side are [3.15] for a third win on the bounce and punters need to be aware that it could be four. Not because they have suddenly morphed into a decent side you understand. Incredibly they could find conditions suit again.

With the ball bending under lights at Centurion, England will be delighted to bat first, post about 220 and then set about a South Africa side under pressure to qualify. Defeat will almost certainly put them out.

South Africa are [1.45] and they owe England after succumbing 4-0 in a one-day series at the end of last summer. In mitigation, the Proteas were knackered after a punishing but successful Test effort.

Top batsman
In that one-day series in England, Gibbs top scored for South Africa with 136 runs while ahead of Matt Prior, the top surviving Englishman, was Andrew Flintoff, Ian Bell and Kevin Pietersen. Those missing names put the 4-0 scoreline into perspective somewhat.

Gibbs, of course, has a horrible record at Centurion. He averages just 9.66 in nine innings and on the one occasion that he played against England there, he was out for a duck. That match, four years ago, was won by South Africa by three wickets and the highest scoring survivor from the day was Graeme Smith, who hit 47.
In South Africa's two appearances on the ground in the tournament, Smith and AB de Villiers have top scored. JP Duminy has failed twice, scoring two and 11.

The most reliable men to follow on form in England's market would appear to be Paul Collingwood and Eoin Morgan. Both struck the ball with confidence against Sri Lanka and the style in which England approach an innings (safe and steady does the job) suits their games perfectly.

Featured market
England look a solid lay for 250 runs or more, particularly with that spin threat likely to slow them in the middle part of an innings. A good price to take would be even money.