ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 28 September 2009 / Leave a comment

England find themselves on unfamiliar ground at The Wanderers - they don't need to win. New Zealand do, though and Ed Hawkins reckons they are the call

Team news
Who'd have thought that England might have been able to consider resting players against New Zealand to save them for the semi-finals in this match?

With Andrew Strauss' side facing a rare dead rubber, James Anderson and Stuart Broad could be allowed their feet up with Ryan Sidebottom and Adil Rashid coming in. One enforced change from the splendid performance against South Africa is Worcestershire wicketkeeper Steve Davies taking the gloves off Eoin Morgan, who stood in for virus victim Matt Prior. Davies is a class act so long as he opens the batting. Playing him out of position down the order would be a waste of time so Joe Denly might feel a little nervous.

Just as England have been allowed special dispensation by the ICC to draft in a player, so to have New Zealand. Aaron Redmond, the opening batsman, joins their squad to replace Jesse Ryder, who is out of the tournament with a groin injury.

Pitch conditions
New Zealand amassed 315 at Johannesburg to beat Sri Lanka. It was a surprising total because The Wanderers surface suits the pacemen first up. Certainly the toss will be key in this game with both sides keen to let loose their seam bowlers on a juicy wicket. Two sides have been bowled out batting first and Australia got very close against West Indies.

Match odds
England have done superbly to reach the semi-finals of a tournament that many feared they would devalue following a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Australia, a side they could meet in the last four.

Easy wins over South Africa and Sri Lanka, not to mention gusto not seen with the willow since England reached World Cup finals in the 80s and 90s, has made them as short as [1.83].

It is a terrible price.

Any punter who takes it has been well and truly suckered by up-down-up-down media hyperbole about the England limited-overs outfit. When they are losing they are the worst side in the world. Win a couple of games and suddenly they will beat the lot to take the
trophy. Equilibrium is an alien word.

The truth is that England have, despite their improvement, been mighty fortunate. They won two crucial tosses at Jo'burg and Centurion. Had
they been on the receiving end of one of those (they would almost certainly not have beaten South Africa without batting first), then this would have been a must-win game.

New Zealand find themselves in that situation. And at [2.16] they can be forgiven for feeling a little miffed at their odds having won six of the last eight meetings between the sides. Those games were played from February and June 2008 as the sides got sick of the sight of each other.

One of the key differences between the two teams was Daniel Vettori's spin. His economy rate for both series was under four an over and England may struggle to once more combat him. It would be fitting if they came unstuck due to an age-old problem to remind their over-excited followers that there is precious little evidence that a page has been turned.

Top batsman
The Kiwis are without one half of their opening master blasters but the other remains and Brendon McCullum could well oblige on the
top-bat market. In those last eight matches, he has top-scored in five of them. England's form batsmen are Owais Shah, Morgan and Paul Collingwood. Shah has top scored against the Kiwis on the last two occasions.

Featured market
The average total batting first in the four games so far is 234, as pointer for punters wanting to play first dig runs

Tags: Andrew Strauss, Brendon McCullum, Champions Trophy betting, Daniel Vettori, England ODI betting, Jesse Ryder injury, New Zealand ODI betting