Champions Trophy Betting: Australia v West Indies

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 25 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ricky Ponting has form in tricky conditions

West Indies have little chance against the might of Australia but there are still value wagers to be had on the top-bat markets, says Ed Hawkins

Team news
Australia have injury problems ahead of a repeat of the 2007 final against West Indies. There is no Nathan Bracken, who has been sent home because of an ongoing knee injury, while Michael Clarke has been struggling with his back.

Clarke has not trained yet since the team's arrival in South Africa. If he fails to make it, James Hopes, the allrounder, could take his place. Peter Siddle is most likely to join Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson in a fearsome pace attack. His only rival is Ben Hilfenhaus
and the way he struggled with no balls in Australia's last outing at the Riverside suggests he won't be risked.

West Indies' woes have been well documented. The world and his wife knows this is a second string team, particularly after a brave performance against Pakistan in their first match. They were shot out for a paltry score but showed tremendous courage to fight back. Batsman Kieran Powell could strengthen the batting while all eyes will be on Gavin Tonge, who took 4-25 v Pakistan.

Pitch conditions
The Johannesburg pitch has been a delight for bowlers. There has been zip, bounce, seam and swing, most notably when West Indies managed to take five wickets against Pakistan. There was plenty of movement early on in England's match versus Sri Lanka, too when Andrew Strauss employed three slips in a wrecking-ball display by the bowlers. The weather forecast is for bright sunshine.

Match odds
This is a mismatch and West Indies must hope they bowl first and take early Australia wickets. Only then will their price of [17.50] shorten. Indeed, one could gamble on their bowlers doing exactly that but bear in mind timing is everything. A couple of wicketless overs and West Indies will drift quickly and you will find your money being swept away as Australia go about their business even in steady style. Australia are as short as [1.05].

Top batsmen
Conditions at The Wanderers are likely to be similar to the Riverside, Durham where Australia played their last one-day match. The ball moved around in that game and several Australian techniques were exposed.

Shame Watson and Tim Paine, the openers, both went cheaply and although West Indies' bowling attack is considerably weaker, not to mention their batting which could ensure Australia chase a low total, they are both worth swerving.

In that game at Durham Ricky Ponting, Clarke and Mike Hussey looked comfortable. Ponting top-scored with 53 and this column would not put you off backing him at around the [3.50] mark.

West Indies' top-bat market is also relatively easy to decipher. Devon Smith looks to be the pick. He is by far their most experienced batsmen and he has the technique to cope with seam and swing. Smith has been obdurate enough in the past to have scored three Test half-centuries against Australia.

Opener Andre Fletcher also has form against the Aussies. He averages 23 against them in two Twenty20 internationals and four ODIs. In the World Twenty20 earlier this summer, he hit 53 against Ponting's side at The Oval.

Featured market
When there is so much movement in the air and off the pitch, batsmen will edge the ball all day long. In the Sri Lanka v England match, the first two batsmen were caught. But the third, Mahela Jayawardene, was leg before to a ball which seamed back. On the method of first dismissal lbw is as big as [6.00]. It is too big and should be closer to the [3.00] mark. Caught is as skinny as [1.50].