Champions Trophy Betting: Australia v Pakistan

ICC Champions Trophy / Andrew Hughes / 29 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Who cares? We're already through!

"Punters beware. This would be a fascinating and keenly fought contest in normal circumstances, but we are close to dead-rubber territory here."

Only one team needs to win this Group A clash and there is more than one reason why punters should be siding with the Aussies, writes Andrew Hughes

Conditions

A morning start means no lie-in for Australia or Pakistan and takes the evening dew out of the equation. Asish Nehra bludgeoned plenty of bounce out of this track two days ago and Amit Mishra extracted some fizzing spin, yet Ricky Ponting, Tim Paine and Mike Hussey were all able to play their shots freely. A sporting pitch in prospect then and no storms forecast, though they tend to creep up on you in that part of the world.

Team News

Historically, Pakistan seem to be able to shuffle their squad without any discernable effect on performance or morale, and with qualification for the semi-finals already secured and no real advantage to be gained by winning the group, they may consider giving Mohammed Asif a game.

Australia will be hoping that Michael Clarke has recovered from his sore back and if he is ready to return, Callum Ferguson is likely to be the unlucky one who drops out. Shane Watson and James Hopes have offered nothing with the bat, but both chip in with useful bowling overs so should keep their places.

Match Odds

Punters beware. This would be a fascinating and keenly fought contest in normal circumstances, but we are close to dead-rubber territory here. Pakistan are already through, but Australia need to win to secure their semi-final spot, a result that would also put India out of the competition. Conspiracy theorists may feel that an Australian win would suit both sides and back Ricky Ponting's men accordingly at [1.58]

But if you aren't of a cynical cast of mind and you believe that both teams will be trying equally hard to win this, which side will have the edge? There is probably a case for opposing Pakistan at [2.66]. Australia have already played on what is a new pitch and enjoyed the extra bounce on offer on Monday. I expect Shahid Afridi's leg spin will be a threat on this surface, but Brett Lee, Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle could put up a pace barrage that will hurry and discomfort the Pakistani batsmen.

Top Batsman

Even if he returns to the fold, it's probably a good idea to shy away from Michael Clarke until he has regained match-sharpness. Ricky Ponting has looked in commanding form and is hard to ignore, particularly given Shane Watson's poor form that invariably means the Australian skipper will get the lion's share of the Powerplay overs to face, despite batting at three.

The identity of the Pakistan top scorer is harder to predict, particularly if they shuffle the pack. One of these days either Imran Nazir or Kamran Akmal is going to put together an impressive score, but they are risky betting propositions and Mohammed Yousuf is a more solid candidate. He looked resolute against India and though it was Shoaib Malik who stole the show on that occasion, MoYo is a class act and worth backing if you can get [4.0] or better.

Featured Market

Amongst the interesting match-betting markets on Betfair, the one that caught my eye was Imran Nazir v Shane Watson. Neither have set the tournament alight, but Watson is struggling to get the ball off the square at the moment and since promoted to open the innings, he hasn't exactly raced along. Nazir may play the odd risky shot but he is good for a quick twenty at least, which should be easily enough to outscore his rival in this market. Back 'Imran Nazir - 0.5 runs' if you can get anywhere near [2.0]