Champions Trophy Betting: Australia v New Zealand

ICC Champions Trophy / Ed Hawkins / 04 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Shane Bond has been deadly against the Aussies

The two rivals meet in the final for a contest which could be decided by the toss. But if the Kiwis call right can they hold their nerve against the most impressive side in the tournament? Ed Hawkins finds out

Match odds
A dose of antipodean aggro makes for a must-watch, if not a little curious, Champions Trophy final. Australia, by far the most impressive team in the tournament, meet New Zealand who have again squeezed every drop from their talent pool.

Ricky Ponting's side are expected to be unchanged from the routine demolition of England. In the absence of Michael Clarke, who is injured, Mike Hussey, Cameron White and Callum Ferguson have yet to be tested in the engine room.

New Zealand have done admirably to cope with the loss of power hitter Jesse Ryder, not to mention the all-round skills of Jacob Oram and pace of Daryl Tuffey. Aaron Redmond has replaced Ryder at the top of the order while Ian Butler, with four wickets in the semi-final against Pakistan, has ensured a starting place for many matches to come.

The Kiwis might tinker. There remains a suspicion that Australia could be troubled by spin so Daniel Vettori may be joined by Jeetan Patel. Neil Broom could be the man to miss out.

Pitch conditions
Centurion is a cracker to bat on, just ask Ponting and Shane Watson who both hit centuries against England. There have been four tons at the venue in the competition and 13 half-centuries. The average first-innings score is a whopping 270 and we should expect runs again from the team batting first. Three times a team has passed 300. The weather is set fair, with early morning showers making way for sun.

Match odds
It is fitting that in a tournament where the phrase 'toss bias' has appeared in almost every preview on this website, we must acknowledge the importance of the coin flip for the final time. Seven of the previous eight day-night matches have been won by the side batting first.

Australia, of course, were the team to buck the trend last time out against England but one would have to feel nervous about taking the [1.48] without the toss on side. If New Zealand bat first, bearing in mind the propensity for runs first up, the [3.05] about the Kiwis will disappear quickly.

Even if Vettori loses the toss and Australia bat first, there is a chance that the betting heat could remain at a decent temperature. That is largely down to the presence of Shane Bond in the New Zealand team, a bowler who has the Indian Sign over Australia like few before him.

Bond has an incredible 34 wickets in 11 matches against the Aussies and has dismissed Ponting six times in nine games. That record is one of the reasons why New Zealand have won five of the previous 10 meetings between the sides.

Top batsman
When Ricky Ponting averages 40 in tournament finals and is coming into this showpiece on the back of more runs (287) than anyone in the competition, to try to find a reason to put people off taking the [3.85] would be churlish. For those who don't fancy such short odds, Mike Hussey might be an alternative. He has a half-century against the Kiwis two meetings ago and top-scored four meetings ago.

The Kiwi top-bat market is as clear cut. Only Ross Taylor at [4.60] and Grant Elliott at [7.20] should be considered. Taylor averages 40 against Australia while Elliott has a mark of 52, courtesy of a century the last time he played against them. Elliott is in nick, too having scored runs in the semi-final.

Featured market
The [2.70] that a century is scored could attract plenty of interest, particularly after Ponting and Watson's bat-raising heroics against England.