IPL Betting: Deccan Chargers v Rajasthan Royals

General / Frank Gregan / 10 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

The return of Andrew Symonds gave Deccan Chargers' fans plenty to smile about even though they did still lose the first match after his return. But will Symonds and Herschelle Gibbs have enough to power the Chargers to victory over Shane Warne's Rajasthan Royals, asks Frank Gregan.

Team News

Both teams were beaten on Saturday but it seems likely that they will stick with the same line ups and offer the players the chance to redeem themselves. Andrew Symonds made his first appearance of the tournament for Deccan in Saturday's match and hit a sparkling unbeaten 60 and his captain (and fellow Australian) Adam Gilchrist will be hoping for more of the same.

Rajasthan captain Shane Warne lost an individual battle of wits with his old mate Mathew Hayden on Saturday and despite performing well with both the bat and ball he found himself giving the losing skipper's speech. He'll be hoping that he is not undone again by his ex Aussie team mates. Rajasthan have found a gem in the young opener Ojha but he was out in the first over for a duck on Saturday and it would be disappointing if the management took the easy option and left him out for this game.

Conditions

The match will be played at the De Beers Diamond Oval, Kimberley which means that neither side have been in transit as both sides played here on Saturday and will be familiar with the wicket. Rajasthan competed under the lights at the weekend but this will be the first time that Deccan will have to cope with the twilight conditions on this pitch.

The average first innings score on Saturday was 154 and in the day-nighter the chasing team had a total of 141 to get. Looking at the first innings score in relation to Saturday's game will probably be how Betfairians make the market at the innings change.

The general rule of thumb of backing the side batting first under lights should not necessarily be applied here as Rajasthan's conquerors Chennai proved on Saturday when they got home with 10 balls remaining that it is the quality of the score posted, not the quality of the lights, that decide a chase on this ground. There is no inclement weather forecast.

Match Odds

Deccan are a point behind Rajasthan with a game in hand and when these two sides met earlier in the tournament it was Shane Warne's men who were successful reaching their target of 142 with two balls to spare. Deccan have won only one of their last five but the return of Symonds is highly significant. There is unlikely to be a great deal of difference between the sides when the market takes shape with both being around [2.0]. The toss will be important and the team winning it will shorten in price and likely bat first. The recommendation is to wait until the innings change and if the side batting first has made 157 or more - back them, 156 or less - lay them.

Top Batsman

The young are fearless Naman Ojha of Rajasthan looks to have too much about him to allow a duck to knock his confidence and there should be a decent price available on the young Indian opener with the likes of Graeme Smith and Jadeja normally seeing most of the support when it comes to the top Rajasthan batsman market. Look at the other end of the chronological scale for Deccan's best bet, the evergreen Herschelle Gibbs already has a high score of 69 under his belt and having only made 13 on Saturday he'll be looking to occupy the crease for a while.

Featured Market

These are two very good fielding sides but they have flattered to deceive when shying at the stumps. The temptation to back more than 1.5 run outs is strong but it has not been a particularly profitable strategy. However, during the first meeting between these two teams there was only one run out and the expectation is that over two games there will be more than 2.5 run outs between them. This 'honed to fit the theory' use of the law of averages suggests there will be more than 1.5 run outs in this game and a match in the region of [2.0] is value.

Where the logic is lacking however is when the first innings total is low, invariably the side batting first has not taken risks whilst wickets were tumbling and the team batting second loses only loses a wicket or two. That's something to ponder whilst you consider whether to back or lay over [1.5] run outs but the recommendation is to back.