Find Me A 100 Winner / Ed Hawkins / 24 May 2009 / 1

Though brilliant with the bat, Deccan rely too heavily on Adam Gilchrist and that could be their undoing says Ed Hawkins. Best bet: Back Bangalore at [2.06].

Team news
Change has been a theme for IPL finalists Deccan Chargers and Royal Challengers Bangalore. Bottom and second bottom respectively in the inaugural tournament last year, there has been a dizzying turnaround in both camps for the sides to meet in the showpiece in Johannesburg.
Deccan made Adam Gilchrist skipper with icon player VVS Laxman stepping aside and although that was important, it was not as pivotal as Laxman holding his hands up halfway through this competition and admitting the format was not for him.
Bangalore have had more upheaval. Kevin Pietersen was their captain for the first six matches and with only two wins on the board, they looked like repeating their dismal form of year one. However, once KP left Anil Kumble took charge to spark a run of seven wins in nine matches.
Kumble discarded the laborious Wasim Jaffer up front, insisted Mark Boucher was the wicketkeeper instead of Robin Uthappa and pushed for the inclusion of 19-year-old Manish Pandey, who in his first game hit a brilliant century against Deccan and then 48 in his second in the semi-final win over Chennai.
Despite the historic adjustments made by the teams, both are likely to stick with XIs that performed so admirably in the semis.
Deccan, who blitzed Delhi, will probably resist recalling Chaminda Vaas for a game under lights while there may be no room in Bangalore's side for Dale Steyn, who is coming back from injury. Next cab off the bowling rank is Balachandra Akhil, who took 2-18 in Bangalore's win over Deccan.

Pitch conditions
There is a toss bias under lights at The Wanderers in Johannesburg. The side batting first has lost five out of six times, a trend too strong to ignore. The average total batting first in all matches is 146, a statistic which is key for punters keen to play the over or under match runs line set currently at 300.

Match odds
In an ideal world Deccan will win the toss and chase, which would justify backing them at [1.84]. With the toss bias mentioned above and the fact that four of their eight wins have come when they have been chasing, the final could be an anticlimax.
However, on the 50-50 toss of a coin Bangalore look astounding value at [2.06]. They have a tremendous sequence of results behind them, a better record than Deccan - they finished two points ahead of them in the table - and only two matches ago beat Gilchrist's side comfortably at Centurion.
Undoubtedly it is that man Gilchrist that is swaying the market in Deccan's favour. His 35-ball 85 in the semi against Delhi would have been an innings of pure fantasy had the Australian not had a history of producing in the biggest of games.
So it is his brute force with the bat against Kumble's brawn. Although Gilchrist top scored when the sides met in game eight, Kumble was not captain. But he was when Bangalore beat Deccan second time around. Gilchrist fell for just 15.
And there's the rub. Get Gilchrist early and Bangalore have one hand on the trophy. In their seven defeats, Gilchrist failed (out before scoring more than 23) in five of them.
It suggests Deccan are slightly one dimensional and that will never do for a short-price jolly.

Top batsman
Dare you not back Gilchrist? He rarely lets his side down in important fixtures. Witness his brutal 149 against Sri Lanka in Bridgetown in the 2007 World Cup final. Four times he has top-scored in this tournament with Herschelle Gibbs matching him blow for blow, although his opening partner also has the most ducks (four). Gibbs top scored when the sides met in Pretoria.
Jacques Kallis has been Bangalore's Mr Reliable. He has outscored his team-mates in four game. Pandey, the new kid on the block, has two from two. The Bangalore market is trickier to call that it would seem, however, because 10 different batsmen have top scored in individual innings throughout the tournament.

Featured market
Going under 68.5 for the highest individual score makes sense when you consider the numbers are heavily in your favour. Only once in seven games has a batsman scored more than 68. There will be interest, too in the highest six over score market. Deccan are deserved favourites here. They average close to nine runs per over in the first six while Bangalore average fewer than seven.

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1. jatinder | 24 May 2009

   deccan will win

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