IPL Betting: Bangalore Royal Challengers v Kings XI Punjab

Find Me A 100 Winner / Scott Ferguson / 23 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Bangalore need to reap rewards from their expensive batting line-up if they are to stay in contention for the IPL crown.

Team News

Bangalore have spent more time travelling than playing so far in this tournament, while Punjab have been in Durban all week. The Royal Challengers have seen little from their Kiwi internationals so far. Jesse Ryder has faced three balls for his two ducks, and Ross Taylor has managed the grand sum of one from his two innings. Jacques Kallis has been ineffective with the ball as well with no more than decent batting. Powerful hitter and crafty slow bowler Roelof van der Merwe sits on the bench, KP could do worse than give him a run. Rahul 'The Wall' Dravid has been a revelation so far this tournament after being written off by all and sundry as a duller player than Geoff Boycott.

The Kings XI will be happy to see a clear sky, they've been shafted by Messrs. Duckworth and Lewis in both games so far. But on closer evaluation, a shorter game is probably to their benefit - their bowling ranks are precariously thin. So far they've only bowled 14.1 overs, taking just one wicket. There's not much left on the bench to bring in, so it puts enormous pressure on the batsmen. Four thirties so far spread out amongst the upper order - handy but not enough to swing a game; it's time for someone to go on with an innings like de Villiers or Hayden have done.

Venue, Pitch and Conditions

The rain earlier in the week in Durban is long gone, with glorious weather forecast for Friday evening. The pitch will be the same as Thursday's runfest between Chennai and Delhi, very hard, not a lot in it for the bowlers except plenty of bounce. The boundaries are quite short, so clean ball-striking can result in a lot of "DLF maximums". Day-night ODIs might favour the team bowling second slightly.

Each match for these sides has been won by the team winning the toss (6-2 from first nine games, one abandoned) but countering that, this is probably the best pitch seen so far. Winning the toss might just influence the prices too much - if the market over-reacts, be prepared to lay that side (who I'd assume will bat first).

Match Odds

Bangalore are slight favourites in the market at around [1.9] which is a little better than I'd marked them. They have a star-studded line-up capable of beating anyone on 'any given day'. As much as I like taking on sides who are over-rated and possibly not united, their opposition doesn't scare anyone. It's the motliest collection of bowlers in the IPL and they don't make up for it via brilliance in the field either. Not even the advantage of sleeping in the same bed for four nights can swing me to back them.

Trading Angle

The ad break after 10 overs seems to disrupt every batting side on a roll, so if you spot a side moving along nicely, lay them short, to trade out after a quick wicket. T20 matches are all about volatility - never be afraid to trade a position. An innings can go from smooth sailing to a struggle within a matter of balls.

Top Batsman

Given the state of the Punjab bowling attack, I fancy someone at the top to take the pressure off KP and Dravid. Batsmen down the order shouldn't get a look in if the openers find form. Robin Uthappa smacks the ball a long way, but his style has been cramped by the consistent wickets falling at the other end. On a better pitch, against weaker bowlers, we might find some value at [5.5] or better.

For the Kings XI, Sangakkara is a steady player, I'd take a bite of [5.5] as well if available. I'd prefer to go with a rock against this level of bowling rather than a hot and cold slogger.

Featured Market: Most Sixes

With Ryder, Uthappa, Pietersen and some tail-end thrashers in the team, I can see the ball clearing the rope a lot more for Bangalore than the Punjab. Value at [1.7] and up.