Find Me A 100 Winner / Alan Dudman / 19 May 2009 /

Shane Warne is running out of matches to get the points needed for the Rajasthan Royals to book their place in the semis. The Knight Riders have abandoned any aspirations to make the last four a long time ago and that care-free attitude may make them dangerous, says Alan Dudman.

Team news:

Kolkata may be the team with the helmet doused in flames, but their cricket has produced
all the pyrotechnics of two damp pieces of wood being rubbed furiously for the odd spark.

That spark came amazingly on Monday night during their impressive win against the Chennai Super Kings. It was undoubtedly a stunning win, led by McCullum and Hodge, but one swallow doesn't make a summer, and most of their cricket has been plain awful throughout this year's IPL.

Kolkata owner ShahRukhKKR said: "It's not how hard you hit, but how hard you can take a hit." Well, they've taken plenty of hits, and I envisage them taking another one here.

The problem with the Knight Riders is that their bowling is about as threatening as a blancmange. Take out slow left-armer Murali Karthik, and there is nothing. Ishant Sharma and Mashrafe Mortaza were left out against Chennai in favour of Ashok Dinda and Anureet Singh. Whilst Ajit Agarkar, who bowls first change, is going for loads.... as he normally does. Their catching is pretty rank too.

Meanwhile, Rajasthan received a boost this week following the news that fast bowler Amit Singh has been cleared by the IPL Technical Commitee, having been reported for a suspect
bowling action. I still think they have problems at the top of the order in building a good solid opening partnership. Their lethal weapon is all-rounder Yusuf Pathan, who has been excellent thus far. Shane Warne has been pocketing on average a couple of wickets per game, and he bowls well at Durban.

The Royals simply have to win. It's a huge game regarding their last four hopes, and
they need a big victory whilst relying on other results. Against Delhi their batting and
fielding were both well below par. They are a side with the 'Snape' inflluence, and
that shows in their bowling plans - as they love to take the pace of the ball and make the batters hit.

Conditions and venue:

Kingsmead, Durban has seen some fairly chilly nights over the past couple of days, but the famous grass banks will be enjoying a fairly warm Wednesday. Despite the trusty humid conditions on offer at the Sahara Stadium, batters have held the key thus far in the tournament. Par scores are in the region of around 165. AB de Villiers hit a hundred here in week one, whilst Graeme Smith's 77 from 44 balls helped Rajasthan rack up 211 against Kings XI Punjab in week two.

The Royals have played three times in Durban, and bar one abandoned game, are
two from two at the ground.

Match Odds:

Kolkata at [2.24] are probably a bit shorter than they ought to be. Yes, they were brilliant in their last win against Chennai batting wise, but their bowling and fielding were once again useless. The run chase against Chennai was a no lose situation and it suited them. Their out-cricket was appalling in the game, whilst McCullum's captaincy lacks direction and he has allowed matches to drift (notably the Super Over defeat between the two previously).

Rajasthan are [1.62] to win, and really ought to be too good for the Knight Riders in all departments.

Top Batsman:

With the weaker of the two attacks being Kolkata, it's a case of backing any one of four in the Rajasthan camp. Opener Graeme Smith hasn't had a great IPL but he likes Durban. Middle-order batsman Yusuf Pathan smashed Mendis all over the shop when the two teams fought out that Super Over game. Quiney and Jadeja can be mentioned, but I really like Pathan, and his huge hitting style should suit Kingsmead.

Featured Market:

Backing anything involving Kolkata is potential high risk. They are happier chasing, and with their pop-gun attack I am hoping for a fairly high scoring game. The over 300 runs market is appealing, but not as much as the [13.50] which was on offer for a century to be scored. It's a risk, but worth a small one.

Recommended bets:

Lay Kolkata @ [2.24]
Back century scored 'yes' @ [13.50]

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