IPL Betting: Chennai Super Kings v Kings XI Punjab

Find Me A 100 Winner / Alan Dudman / 19 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Chennai Superkings will probably qualify for the semis on net run rate even if they lose this one but MS Dhoni won't be keen on relying on those sort of factors and will try to get one over fellow Indian ODI/Twenty20 star Yuvraj Singh, says Alan Dudman.

Team news:

The Chennai Super Kings head into the match knowing they could lose and still qualify due to their superior run-rate. MS Dhoni's side are [1.73] to make the final, and trade at virtually the same price to win here. They are in the prime position, and a lot has to go wrong in order for them not to make it.

Chennai's preparations could still be tinged with shellshock after losing to Kolkata (yes,
losing to Kolkata) on Monday. Coach Stephen Fleming opted to err on the side of caution in leaving out the IPL's leading run scorer - Matthew Hayden. He had a slight quad strain and it could be a decision which may come back to haunt. The Queenslander has been head and shoulders above everyone in the tournament, and he has been key, as success this year owes to teams getting off to a good start. He has over 500 runs, averaging over 50 and a strike rate of over 150. I hope to see him shrug off that slight strain and make the line up here.

Elsewhere, Fleming has cited the need for good balance in the side. Kiwi all-rounder Jacob Oram gives that, but has been under-used - he could possibly make way in favour of Makhaya Ntini to add a bit of zest.

Kings XI Punjab are on the back of a brilliant one-run win against Deccan on Sunday. Captain Yuvraj Singh nabbed his second hat-trick of the tournament with the ball, and it was a victory that still leaves them in the hunt for a semi-final place. Incidentally they trade at [3.64] to make the final.

Punjab are inconsistent and their batting has really let them down in games. Yuvrajis a moody leader, and if things are not going his way, his body language is at times appalling. Sri Lankan Mahela Jayawardene is a big doubt with his fitness and coach Tom Moody states Durban a ground which is suited by 'horses for courses'. On the bowling front Brett Lee, Irfan Pathan and Shan Sreesanth form a top drawer pace attack, with portly spinner Ramesh Powar mixing it up.

Conditions and venue:

Chennai have played three times at Durban so far, and lost them all. It's been a venue which has produced plenty of runs though, and Chennai have scored well in two of those three defeats. It's the second game of the day at Kingsmead, and the forecast is bright, sunny with only light winds. Super Kings pair Hayden and Raina have both got runs at the ground.

Match Odds:

Chennai look good value at [1.70] to back, and the defeat against Kolkata was a bit of a freak. It leaves them fretting on a semi-final place but they should qualify with a victory, and are well captained by Dhoni, although catching has been cause for concern.

Yuvraj really pulled the rabbit out of the hat against the Chargers at the Bull Ring, and are [1.95] to win the game. The [3.65] on offer for them to qualify for the final makes little appeal and am a firm layer of that.

Top Batsman:

I can only look at Chennai here, with Matthew Hayden and Suresh Raina both having a sublime time. Hayden (if fit), will be all the rage and a short price. With the ball really coming on to the bat in Durban, we'll get a better price on the big-hitting Suresh Raina. He's already got four fifties and we'll ask for around the [6.00] mark.

Featured market:

As you can tell, I like games at Durban and they have been pretty consistent in high scores. With many of the in-form batters on show, the 'highest individual score' market is appealling, and I advise a back of the over 68.5 runs.

Recommendations:

Back over 68.5 runs @ [2.40] in 'highest individual market'
Back Chennai to win @ [1.70]
Back Suresh Raina as Chennai top bat @ [6.00]