Twenty20 Betting: Rain could freshen up home side's chances

England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 28 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Shane Watson is a key member of Australia's ODI and T20 team with both bat and ball.

"Australia have a win percentage of 48 compared to England’s 40, they average a huge 40 runs more in first innings and have never lost to the Netherlands"

England must forget about Ashes glory and focus on the first of two Twenty20 matches against Australia. Ed Hawkins uncovers the value for Sunday's contest

'After the Lord Mayor's Show' was a phrase coined to describe anti-climax because following the grand parade in London every November, some poor sucker has to sweep up the horse dung. A Twenty20 match on Sunday at a raucous Old Trafford against Australia is hardly the same for England cricketers recovering from Ashes glory, so punters expecting turned up noses from the hosts would be wise to think again.

Besides, England appear to have had the post-Ashes comedown flushed out of their system with a lacklustre two-run win over Ireland at a soppy Stormont. No doubt the juices will start flowing once more when they clasp eyes on their old foes.

Indeed, if the sight of an Australia side led by Michael Clarke in the absence of Ricky Ponting does not spark a feelgood factor on a par with heroics at The Oval, then the underdog tag just might. Australia are hot favourites to take the first of two Twenty20 internationals - the sides meet again in Manchester on Tuesday - with the match odds market chalking them up as short as [1.71]. England are [2.36].

The first thing to say is that those odds are correct. Australia are a better Twenty20 unit than England. The tourists have a superior win percentage of 48 compared to England's 40, they average a huge 40 runs more in first innings and they have never lost to the Netherlands.

Delve a little deeper and one really could be forgiven for thinking that all England's players are good for is clearing up after the party is over: in a first dig England have never posted more than 200, Australia have done it three times; England have been bowled out three times in first innings, Australia just once; England have won only twice in eight matches when asked to chase.

But before you start reckoning Australia are a mortgage job, remember the potential for inspiration that Antipodeans provide for the English and then take a look at the weather forecast. Manchester is as famous for rain as it is its football teams and if the heavens open as forecast, so will a punting opportunity.

Statistically England appear to be unbackable but in a shortened match they suddenly look a much more appetising bet. If there is one thing we have learnt about betting on Twenty20 it is that rain reduces not only overs but a gulf in class. For example, it is much easier to score at eight an over for 10 overs as it is for 20.

Of course a rain interrupted game not only provides value on the match odds market. Runs-related markets such as total fours, total sixes and fifty scored are suddenly ones to get shy of. A lay of the latter could be the bet of the day with only three half-centuries scored (two in one game) on the ground in the four domestic matches in this format.

Opening batsmen will quite rightly attract much of the money for top runscorers because of the weather fears. England could again pair Ravi Bopara and Luke Wright as they did in the World Twenty20 although Joe Denly could get the nod after a half-century against Ireland.

In truth Jonathan Trott should get one of the opening berths. In cracking form as proved by his ton in the final Test, no-one has scored more runs in a Twenty20 season than Trott managed this summer. His tally of 525 surpassed Justin Langer's record of 464 set in 2006. All of those came from either No 1 or No 2 so it would be common sense for England to deploy him in the same role.

Shane Watson and David Warner will most likely get the nod up top for Australia with Clarke batting at No 3 as Ponting recuperates in Sydney. Warner averaged 26 for Durham in this year's Twenty20 Cup, striking at an impressive 163. Such belligerence should give Australia a much-needed boost since a show in south London which was similar to what comes out of a horse's backside.