England Cricket / Andrew Hughes / 23 March 2008 /

Andrew Hughes on the action from the deciding Test

Ahead of the Third Test, there was unanimous agreement that the Napier pitch would be hard, true and excellent to bat on. When Michael Vaughan called correctly, his bemused smile was in sharp contrast to the glumness of Daniel Vettori who clearly expected to be toiling in the field long after the last Easter eggs were unwrapped. The draw traded at odds-on and everyone settled down to watch England rack up 500.

Two days and 22 wickets later and we have been reminded of a fundamental rule of betting on cricket; that the nature of the surface is only one factor. The Napier pitch has remained flat and true as predicted. But persistent cloud cover means that the ball has swung all day and those prepared to pitch the ball up have reaped the rewards, assisted by the hesitant footwork of a string of batsmen out of touch.

Indeed a video of England's batting effort on Saturday morning could be used in batting clinics around the world. From Vaughan's leaden feet to Cook's wonky off-stump radar; Strauss's collapsing back leg to Ian Bell's terminal indecision, they took it in turns to demonstrate the flaws in their technique and slumped to a ridiculous 36-4. Their destroyer was the steady but hardly sensational fast medium debutant Tim Southee.

Of course, if a 19-year-old in his first Test could cause such havoc, it almost goes without saying that Ryan Sidebottom would make the ball talk and so he did with yet another admirably consistent spell after lunch on the second day. In reducing New Zealand from 103-1 to 168 all out, he took seven wickets and secured England a barely credible first innings lead of 85.

And yet, for those batsmen prepared to play themselves in and acclimatise to the swing, there are plenty of runs to be had, as Pietersen showed with his well-crafted century on the first day. Stephen Fleming also looked to be playing on a different pitch to his inept colleagues during his pulsating 50 on the second morning. Fleming has understandably received a lot of tributes in his final series, but in truth, his record is disappointing. For example, his nine Test centuries in 14 years looks a feeble return when compared with Pietersen's ten since 2005. Though a formidable captain, Fleming will be remembered as a good, not a great batsman.

Still it was considerate of James Anderson to try to send him off with a century. One particularly memorable over went for three consecutive fours, followed by a slashed uppercut over point for six. This was the Anderson we have grown used to. A capable bowler in helpful conditions, he quickly reverts to headless chicken mode when the batsmen counter-attack. Both he and Broad bowled too short this morning and for a few overs, the wheels of the England wagon were starting to wobble. Fortunately, Sidebottom was around to single-handedly haul them back into the game. If Peter Moores could hand out honours, we would already be calling him Sir Ryan.

Understandably, the odds on a draw have drifted considerably and you can now back the stalemate as high as [11.5] The cloud cover will persist for the next three days and even if Tuesday's forecast rain arrives, a result looks certain. If you think England's lead of 176 with eight wickets in hand is already a match-winning position, you can back them at [1.26] Those looking to back the home side at [7.6] will be hoping the market has overreacted and will point to the evidence of Wellington where the Black Caps reached 311 in their second innings, on a far trickier pitch.

And as ever with Betfair, there are plenty of other intriguing markets to get your teeth into. For instance, you can back Andrew Strauss as top second innings scorer at [2.16] He finished on 42 overnight and so is clear favourite, but you might be tempted by the [5.2] on offer for 'any other batsman', a category which includes the perennially underrated Paul Collingwood, Tim Ambrose and Stuart Broad, who smashed a promising 40 in the first innings.

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