England Cricket / The Betfair Contrarian / 03 February 2009 /

Having predicted the demise of England against the Stanford Superstars in the Stanford Twenty for 20, the Betfair Contrarian is back on cricket duty and confident that England won't get much change out of the West Indies either, in the Test Series starting on Wednesday. Here's why.

The Betfair Contrarian: Why England won't win the test series in the West Indies

The Contrarian likes a good joke as much as the next punter, but not necessarily as a betting opportunity. The England cricket team staged one of their periodic farces for us just before Christmas, which concluded hilariously with both coach and captain falling out of bed at the same time! As they've still got a skeleton staff of talent, England arrive in the Caribbean as [1.67] favourites on Betfair, yet the Contrarian feels the prices of [4.4] on the West Indies or [5.3] on the draw are far too big to ignore. Here's why:

2004 was an exception rather than the norm

The last time England travelled out to the West Indies for a test series was five years ago and on that occasion they triumphed 3-0. However, that was England's only series win in the Caribbean in the last 41 years. Prior to that England had lost five straight series when visiting them. Overall, the visitors' series record in the West Indies reads won three, drawn three and lost eight - a 21% win rate.

The Windies rarely suffer successive defeats

The West Indies have lost successive home test series just once in the last 38 years, showing that while they are occasionally beaten on their own doorstep, they usually bounce back. That bodes well for them because they lost the last series they hosted 2-0 to Australia back in May and June of last year. On the last four occasions they have lost a home series they have followed it up with two wins and two draws.

England's recent test record is poor

Despite being such overwhelming favourites to win this series, England have won just four of their last twelve test series, failing to win either of the last two. That record is even more worrying outside of the UK, with England winning just one of their last six since a slender 2-1 win in South Africa in 2004-05. That lone success was an unspectacular 2-1 victory over a New Zealand side that have won just two of the last nine series they have been involved in. England have lost four of the six series over that period and the aggregate score was eleven tests to three in favour of their opponents.

It is hard to imagine new captain Strauss setting a good batting example

Too many recent England captains have seen their form go to shreds when having to decide who's going to bowl as well and after his century in each innings in the recent test against India in Chennai, Strauss is set fair to see his form obliterated by the pressures of office. The evidence? Two years ago when England won 3-0 over a West Indies side with a particularly weedy bowling line up, Andrew Strauss averaged just 24 and topped the fifty mark in just one innings.

More worrying Strauss stats

Strauss's strike-rate in Test cricket has dropped gradually from around 50 runs per 100 balls in his first couple of years to 43 last year. It may also be a concern that when he took charge of a one-day series against Sri Lanka two-and-a-half years ago, England found themselves on the wrong end of a 5-0 washout against a side who had lost their last series at home to Pakistan.

New England captains rarely get off to a winning start

Mike Atherton, Nasser Hussain and Michael Vaughan all failed to win their first series as permanent England captain. Kevin Pietersen took charge against South Africa once the series was already a lost cause, but he didn't hesitate to make amends by royally botching the recent tour to India.

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