Test Match Betting: South Africa have time on their side

England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 09 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jacques Kallis is battling back from injury

"From a low of [1.40], South Africa now trade at [1.70] and rising. England are [2.40] with the draw trading at [4.80]. The drift can almost entirely be explained by punters overreacting to England's 2-1 victory in the one-day series, inflicting only the third two-team series defeat on South Africa at home. It was about as surprising an upset as one can remember in terms of the apparent gulf between sides."

A beaten and bowed South Africa have drifted for success in the Test series, which starts next week, against England. But is it justified and are the hosts still value? Ed Hawkins tries to find out

If a friend told you they expected to record a stunning time in a half marathon because of their form in 200m sprints, most likely - once you had stopped guffawing - you would tell them not to be so dim-witted and make sure they did some proper preparation.

Of course, the above is a fantastical and almost unthinkable situation. It would never happen. So why has something akin to such a folly happened on the outright market for the four-Test series between South Africa and England, which starts in Centurion next Wednesday?

From a low of [1.40], South Africa now trade at [1.70] and rising. England are [2.40] with the draw trading at [4.80].

The drift can almost entirely be explained by punters overreacting to England's 2-1 victory in the one-day series, inflicting only the third two-team series defeat on South Africa at home. It was about as surprising an upset as one can remember in terms of the apparent gulf between sides.

Yet it is about as relevant as your marathon-running chum. Rarely does 50-over form transform to gruelling five-day Tests. In the former, fluking a discipline for 20 minutes can be enough to win a game. In the latter, batsmen or bowlers have to get it right for hours at a time.

Indeed, bettors who have used 50-over matches as a formguide for Tests have come unstuck on the rare occasions that one-day series have preceded the longer version of the game.

In the last five years England have never carried their one-day form into Tests; before the 2005 Ashes they lost 2-1 in the NatWest Series, they beat Sri Lanka 3-2 but lost 1-0 in 2007, they succumbed 3-1 to New Zealand but recovered to take the Test series in 2008 and in the same year they were woeful in a 5-0 drubbing against India but were perhaps unfortunate to lose the Tests 1-0.

It would be fair to reckon that eight of 10 punters responsible for South Africa's drift did so because of a lack of confidence in South Africa on the back of the one-day series. The devil is in the detail, however.

What were the other two opposing them for? Most probably it was the injury to Jacques Kallis and a nagging worry that South Africa might struggle to take 20 wickets often enough.

Allrounder Kallis is hugely important to South Africa. Whereas England are well-versed in
their now retired talisman Andrew Flintoff, the hosts are still searching for a formula. Kallis is rated as only 50-50 to recover from a rib injury in time for the first Test.

South Africa appear to be panicking. They have named a whopping 15-man squad for game one, attempting to cover all bases by adding batsman Alviro Petersen, allrounder Ryan McLaren and pace men Morne Morkel and Friedel de Wet. Such a move also betrays an apparent lack of faith in their attack. Allan Donald, the former tyro, reckons coach Mickey Arthur is concerned.

That he may be, although Arthur has time to put it right. As do punters. A Test series is a marathon and what is relevant now could be meaningless in four long weeks when the sides are in Johannesburg for the business end of the series. Kallis, for example, will probably have returned to fitness by then.

It means that South Africa have to be considered value, particularly if you consider that they are better at putting in the hard yards than England. Twice as good according to the stats in fact. In the respective sides' last 14 Tests, South Africa have taken 20 wickets eight times to England's four.