England Cricket / Andrew Hughes / 10 January 2012 /

Pakistan versus England means the world's two best spinners are going head-to-head. Andrew Hughes thinks Graeme Swann will come off second best.

There are a number of potential challengers to Graeme Swann's position as the world's best Test spinner, but with due respect to Shakib Al Hasan, Rangana Herath and Daniel Vettori, his most serious rival is Pakistan's Saeed Ajmal, a fellow off-spinner who has been steadily climbing the ICC rankings since making his belated Test debut in 2009 at the age of 31.

Both men are bound to get through a lot of overs on the flat wickets out in the UAE, so the series could well come down to which of these spin kings performs best. And the numbers suggest that Ajmal is the man in form. Whilst Swann had a perfectly respectable 2011 (27 wickets at 34.22 apiece), Ajmal's stats were the more impressive. In eight Tests, he amassed 50 scalps at an average of just 23.86.

He has said that he will unleash a new delivery in the UAE, although this kind of talk from spinners should be taken with a pinch of salt. Shane Warne was always claiming to have come up with something new (anyone remember the Zooter?) But Ajmal clearly believes it's worth playing these mind games, perhaps because many of the England players have struggled against him in the recent past.

At the Oval during the ill-fated tour of 2010, it became apparent that England's batsmen were not picking Ajmal's doosra. Although Mohammed Amir's five wicket haul in the second innings took the headlines, it was the off spinner who created panic as one batsman after another played down the wrong line. And whilst Ajmal should be able to repeat the dose in the UAE, Graeme Swann may struggle.

Swann is essentially an orthodox off spinner. He gives the ball a big tweak, but is primarily aiming to beat batsmen with flight. This makes him a highly entertaining bowler to watch, but his style is not well suited to the wickets in the UAE, where any turn will be slow and there will be little bounce to bring the bat-pad catchers into play. In those conditions, against batsmen adept at playing spin, giving the ball more air just means they will have more time to pick their shot.

By contrast, Ajmal is an off spinner in the modern mode. He bowls with a quicker, flatter trajectory that hurries batsmen. But his most dangerous attribute is the ability to spin it both ways with little discernable change of action. In fact, in 2011, he seemed to bowl as many doosras as orthodox off-breaks. If the batsman is unable to read him, Ajmal need only turn the ball a fraction in either direction to take a wicket and so does not depend as much as Swann on assistance from the pitch.

Of course, Swann should not be underrated. Great bowlers rise to new challenges and he has a perfectly respectable record on sub-continental style pitches, albeit from only four Tests. But it is hard to escape the conclusion that these UAE wickets on which Ajmal recently claimed 18 victims in a series against Sri Lanka, will suit the Pakistani off spinner more than his English counterpart and it is Ajmal who makes more appeal in the top series bowler market at around [5.5]

Under Misbah-ul-haq, Pakistan are a cautious outfit and undefeated in the five Tests they have played in the UAE. Their game plan will be for their stodgy batting line-up to slowly grind out decent scores before allowing Ajmal to weave his magic. With just a four man bowling attack and with Swann not likely to have things his own way, England will struggle to force victories and are well worth laying at [2.24] in the series winner market.

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