South Africa v England - PREVIEW

England Cricket / Editor / 16 April 2007 / Leave a Comment

South Africa's defeat against New Zealand on Saturday night has turned Tuesday's Cricket World Cup clash with England back into what basically is summed up as an unofficial quarter-final, although defeat by Michael Vaughan's side would not necessarily mean the end for the Proteas.

Graeme Smith's men never looked like being able to defend a below-par score of 193-7, and they were in trouble as soon as they lost wickets in both of the first two overs, with their overall performance some way short of what most people would expect from the world's top ranked one-day international side.

The New Zealand victory sealed their place in the last-four, so there remains just one place up for grabs between South Africa, England and, more unlikely, the West Indies and Bangladesh, who would need a freak series of results to make it through.

But Betfair's punters still do not have much faith in England's ability to beat both South Africa and the hosts, as they are rated 2.72 shots to make it into the semi-finals, with South Africa the 1.55 favourites and West Indies at 25, a longer price even than Bangladesh (21).

England will have been given plenty of encouragement by a very poor all-round performance given by Smith's side on Saturday, especially with their much-vaunted batting line-up failing to make it past 200, and the South Africans also have the disadvantage of not yet having played at the Kensington Oval in Barbados which hosts this game.

Vaughan's team struggled to victory in their first experience on what seemed to be a tough pitch to bat on, and with the pressure once again on the top of their order it would be no real surprise to see them try to chase a target again if they win the toss.

James Anderson and Sajid Mahmood both exploited conditions well against Bangladesh last week, but this seems to be a pitch that offers plenty of help to the spinner as well given the performance of Monty Panesar, who was most impressive in taking 3-25.

Add to that the way the Bangladeshi spinners performed, with both Abdur Razzak and Mohammed Rafique taking two wickets, and there has to be a chance that England will give Jamie Dalrymple a chance to return to the side and take advantage of the built-in edge they have over South Africa in the spin-bowling department.

So far 33 batsmen have taken the crease at the Kensington Oval and only one - Bangladesh star Saqibul Hasan - has passed 50, although it has to be noted here that the Australians completely out-classed Ireland in the other game on the pitch and would undoubtedly have improved the batting figures had they batted first or had a bigger target to chase.

But it seems most likely that this game will be a battle of the bowlers with runs at a premium, and that will put a huge load on the inexperienced England line-up, where the experienced Andrew Flintoff will have to be to the fore if success is to follow, and if he is completely over the illness scare that affected him in the run-up to Tuesday's game.

Although it is a close call, England have probably bowled better than they have batted so far in the Caribbean, and Flintoff has been the star with 11 wickets, revelling in his role as first-change. He should be among the favourites in the top England bowler market, and has every right to be there on his current form - he is also the only England bowler averaging less than 25 runs per wicket.

But it could well be the inconsistent Mahmood who proves to be the key as his raw pace looked well suited to this pitch and his two early wickets against Bangladesh did make a massive difference - nipping out a couple of South Africa's top order could prove harder but would also bring far bigger rewards.

The state of the brittle England batting line-up will have punters thinking just where to look in the top batsman market, and after only Vaughan managed to pass 29 against Bangladesh there would have to be worries of another small target for South Africa to chase if they bat first.

Only Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood have impressed so far, but even they have struggled in recent games, and the former is the only England player anywhere close to competing in the top total runscorer market - his price of 28 reflects the fact that he would need two or three really big innings to compete with the likes of Ricky Ponting, Jacques Kallis and favourite Matthew Hayden.

Other than that pair, only chirpy wicket-keeper Paul Nixon has exceeded expectations, and with Ed Joyce and Andrew Strauss both in lousy nick, there has to be a chance of a big shake-up, perhaps with Ravi Bopara moving up the order or, as has been intimated in some corners, Flintoff opening in a pinch-hitting role. Both would make a big difference in the innings top batsman market.

South Africa failed dismally to carry forward the momentum they had gained from a crushing win over the West Indies when failing to the Kiwis, but you would still expect them to be able to beat England if both sides are at their best.

The defeat in Grenada came courtesy of a poor start to their innings, and it could well be that the comfort of New Zealand's victory was much down to getting first use of a tough pitch rather than the fact that they were the better side - conditions in the first 20 overs were as tough as have been seen during the tournament so far, at least in matches between top teams.

That they forced New Zealand to go all the way to the 49th over before securing their five-wicket win should be a credit to them, and it did show that Shaun Pollock and Andre Nel will be big dangers to England's batsmen.

But they still do not seem to have settled on their best line-up, with leading wicket-taker Charl Langeveldt again omitted from the side that faced the Kiwis in order to give left-arm spinner Robin Peterson a game - he is the only front-line spinner in the Proteas squad and may have to play again on a pitch seeming suited to slow bowling.

Peterson did manage to grab his first wicket of the World Cup but that could be the area in which England exploit their advantage, especially if Dalrymple is added to the side - pace bowling is probably fairly close between the two, as South Africa's main men (those selected more recently) have not covered themselves in glory, especially Makhaya Ntini, who has taken only six wickets at an average of nearly 50 runs per.

But the batting, apart from the New Zealand game, has not been such a problem as both Kallis and Smith have scored more runs than England's leader Pietersen, who of course turned down the chance to play for South Africa himself as he got himself qualified to play for England, who could all-but guarantee him a starting spot for as long as he wants.

Kallis leads all batsmen with 463 runs so far, while Smith, AB de Villiers and Herschelle Gibbs have all passed 300 and Mark Boucher has been one of the quickest scorers with a strike-rate of 138.28 per 100 balls, so the evidence is plain to see - if England bowl badly, they could be making an early return home to prepare for the summer Test series with Sri Lanka and the West Indies.