Cricket

South Africa v England 2nd Test Betting: Day Four

England Cricket RSS / Ed Hawkins / 29 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

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Ian Bell was charged with scoring quick runs in the first session

Ian Bell was charged with scoring quick runs in the first session

England will attempt to push on for a victory chance in Durban. Ed Hawkins is on hand to guide us through a pivotal day at Kingsmead. Email him with your thoughts on the action here


CLOSE 14.58 SA 76-6
South Africa will go one-nil down tomorrow. That might sound a ballsy statement given the incredible turnaround we've seen in this game but only rain can save them and I can't find any forecast. England as short as [1.11] having been as big as [4.00] at one stage today. I'll be back bright and early (and cold) at 07.30GMT to guide you through to the finish of one of South Africa's most embarrassing defeats. And that's saying something.


BAD LIGHT 14.38 SA 76-6
Sacha, our South African chum, has been in touch to try to answer what has gone wrong with his countrymen. "Blame it on on Mickey 'Megaphone Mouth' Arthur, who should refrain from making Australia-like predictions or dispensing advice to the opposition until he has a Warne and McGrath in his side AND a clue on batting tactics for the last innings of a Test match. Not sure about a choke - a brain fart would be a more apt description I think."


BAD LIGHT 14.23 SA 76-6
South Africa get the chance to get off and go away to have a lie down in a dark room. They may not come back out tonight. Tomorrow, England will take a 1-0 lead for sure
.


14.13 SA 65-6
Mike Atherton has had a go at explaining what we've seen this afternoon. "Simply," he said. "It's just pressure." Johan, who I'm guessing is South African by his name and angst, says: "Oh and I suppose your English boys are so tough up stairs eh?" Well, that is offensive. This is a patriotic-free blog Johan. Always has been. Always will. Our only allegiance is to the side we have backed. That's betting school lesson one.


14.00 SA 59-6
What a tremendous afternoon this has been. Did anyone see this coming? I suppose if you reckon all South Africans only talk to prepare their throats for a choke, then the answer would be yes. An interesting concept the choke, particularly as far as South Africa are concerned. In ODIs the South Africa implosion is well-versed. They rarely do it in Tests though. Why do they do it at all? If I framed a tip around the fact that South Africa, 10 years ago, mentally disintegrated in a high-profile match and were therefore bad value because future generations would be affected, you'd laugh at me. Mental weakness is hard to measure even. I don't know what is going on inside my head, let alone 11 cricketers. If there are any South Africans reading this, perhaps you could get in touch to give us potential hints regarding the cause of the problem. Is it the schooling? The culture?. Email me here.


13.42 SA 50-6
It is now not a question over whether South Africa can hold on, but whether they can avoid defeat with a day to spare. One of the most astonishing collapses witnessed, folks. On a good batting wicket and needing only to do the basics for a couple of sessions, South Africa have been exposed. There are 27 overs left tonight. South Africa need it to get very dark, very quickly.


WICKET 13.38 SA 50-6
G Smith lbw b Swann 22. England [1.11], the draw [11.00]


13.31 SA 49-5
Total and utter mental breakdown by South Africa. For Edgbaston 1999, World Cup 2003, and every other pressure situation come to think of it, read Durban 2009. AB de Villiers and JP Duminy have gone in successive balls. Both wickets fell because of their fear of using their bats. It's like South Africa have got the yips. AB copied Kallis' method of leaving a straight one to be leg before and then Duminy tried to get his out of the way, succeeding only in chopping on. Incredible stuff.

WICKET 13.26 SA 44-5
JP Duminy b Broad 0. England [1.25] and the draw [4.40]. Broad on a hat-trick


WICKET 13.23 SA 44-4
AB de Villiers lbw b Broad 2. England [1.50], the draw [3.00].


13.22 SA 44-3
A key moment. AB de Villiers has survived a whopping appeal and a referral for a caught behind off Swann. Only he knows if he hit it. The draw now back to favourite status at [1.90]. That gives us a foolproof strategy for the rest of the Test. When there is a wicket, back the draw, 15 wicketless minutes later, lay it.


13.14 SA 41-3, trail by 191 runs
I'd just sat down to some kippers and toast when Kallis was, fittingly, done like a kipper. He just left a straight one from Broad and it hit his off pole. Bonkers. However, as soon as that wicket fell, I backed the draw at [2.28] to prove how quickly it will shorten. I could lay off now at [2.05]. Not big margins but enough, folks, enough. England have a real spring in their step. And Swann is getting big turn and bite. I may have to lay off sharpish.


WICKET 13.04 SA 40-3
J Kallis b Broad 3. England [1.86] and the draw [2.26].


TEA 12.43 SA 37-2, trail by 195
So those two wickets before tea allows those who decided to back or lay on England and the draw respectively to trade out. Do so if I were you. It could get gloomy after the break and South Africa will run for cover at the first opportunity. Graeme Swann has given England a chance here, though. South Africa's courage will now be put to the test. They don't have a great record when their backs are to the wall.


WICKET 12.40 SA 37-2
H Amla b Swann 6. England [2.50] and the draw [1.65]


12.28 SA 31-1, trail by 201
Swann has an uncanny ability to strike in the first over of a spell. A really good catch from Ian Bell, one-handed low down to his right. The new ball had not done a great deal for England, hence Swann's introduction. There is a school of thought that Swann will be the key man on this surface, which has shown signs of dustiness. Indeed, Swann is troubling Hashim Amla, the new batsman, straight away as England get overexcited about a deflection off his pad.


WICKET 12.22 SA 27-1
A Prince c Bell b Swann 16. England [3.35] and the draw [1.42].


11.57 SA 10-0
Uneventful innings so far. A bit like my Christmas. I mean, a dressing gown? Is that all I'm worth? Oh, hang on, I forgot the address book that my grandparents got me. I don't know anyone! It really is a dreadful publication entitled 'Images of The Thames from the Cotswolds to London'. I knew it was a bad one when I read the tag line 'an efficiently-laid out book'. One would hope that the very least an address book manages is that it is efficiently laid out. June following November, for instance would be no good to anyone.


11.38 SA 0-0, trail by 232
It is almost guaranteed that if South Africa were to lose an early wicket here, there will be an overreaction on the market. By all means back England at [3.60] or lay the draw at [1.40] with an unshakeable plan to trade out. The new ball should do something. Indeed, Ashwell Prince has looked particularly vulnerable to James Anderson's benders.


11.25 Eng 575-9d, lead by 232
I Bell c Boucher b Steyn 141. An end to Bell's innings, one which has probably secured his position in the squad, on away trips at least with England keen to pack their batting, for the Ashes. Ok, I've got a bit ahead of myself there. Some interesting Bell stats coming up later, though, so watch out for that. As I type, England have declared. About time. The draw drifts (tongue in cheek) to [1.37]. England are [3.70].

WICKET 11.10 565-8
G Swann c Prince b Steyn 22. That took just 14 balls. Entertaining. Best thing for England now is to be bowled out. The draw remains steadfast at [1.35]. England [3.90]. I'm sure we'll see a reaction when the innings closes.


11.09 Eng 565-7
South Africa have taken the new ball. Just as well. Graeme Swann has come into to give England some much-needed impetus. Fours on both sides of the wicket. he rerally does look a tremendous player these days. England lead by 220 runs. More than enough. Stick them in.


WICKET 10.54 Eng 536-7
S Broad c Kallis b JP Duminy 20. South Africa [310.00], England [3.85] and the draw [1.34].


10.50 Eng 525-6
That's more like it England. 15 off the over as Broad starts to free his arms.


10.41 Eng 513-6, lead by 170
England may well have left their brains in the hotel this morning. They wasted the 55 minutes before lunch, scoring only 36 runs with one boundary four and one two. Those facts become particularly confusing when you consider that South Africa have a new ball due now. Why did England not get after South Africa with the blades of Bell and Broad in those minutes before lunch when runscoring would have been twice as easy as it about to be? Don't know. But it shouldn't surprise. Cast your minds back to how negative England were in the Caribbean. This is entirely in keeping with the formguide.


LUNCH 10.07 Eng 513-6, lead by 170 runs
Even by the negative standards of international Test captaincy, that was baffling stuff by Andrew Strauss's England at the tailend of that session. Ian Bell and Stuart Broad have limped along, scoring their 36 runs together at a hilarious 2.3 runs per over. The draw is [1.34] and England are [3.90].


09.54 Eng 509-6
As England crawl along at a frankly pahetic three runs per over during the last 10, Bushwacker's timing seems to be off in taking issue with my criticism of Ian Bell. he has emailed to say that I'm "way too harsh on the lad. He's scored runs under pressure here". First of all, he's not a lad. He's a man of 50 Test matches. Second, I'll give you he was under personal pressure. But that is not as heavy as team pressure. I will never be convinced about Bell until he scores big runs when it really matters. And it didn't really matter in the context of the game situation.


09.39 Eng 504-6
500 for England. That is only the sixth time in the last 12 years that they have breached that mark in away Tests. Still, they're going too slowly. Stuart Broad has seven runs from 23 balls. Ian Bell is the real culprit. Since his century he has scored nine runs in 15 balls. By normal standards that is fine. Not in this situation, though. The draw is [1.36].


09.21 486-6, lead by 143
Ian Bell goes to a century by hitting Paul Harris over the top for four. The crowd greet it with whoops and cheers and Bell kisses the badge on his helmet. The neutral will greet it with a shrug of the shoulders. So what? Have we learnt anything new about Ian Bell in this innings? No. He has scored a century on an easy pitch when all the hard work has been done by other batsmen ahead of him. Bell's made a career of that. When the chips are down and the team is under pressure, he is a different proposition. So England and Bell can celebrate all they like, but, really, it's not the leap forward they will have you believe.


09.10 Eng 477-6
The loss of Prior is bit of a blow for England. He was going along nicely and trying to force the pace. Previous to to chopping on off JP Duminy, he had taken 19 runs from six balls. With a strike rate of 74 he was certainly showing more intent than Ian Bell, who has been happy to take singles as he approaches a century. We'll deal with him later.


WICKET 09.07 Eng 477-6
M Prior b JP Duminy 60. South Africa [130.00], England [3.80] and the draw [1.36].


08.51 Eng 450-5, lead by 107
England's foot would appear to be poised over the accelerator. Their run rate in the last 10 is up to 3.5 now. Still, that hasn't stopped the draw price going through the floor. At [1.33] currently. It will make an effort to climb if England are seen to be showing a real intent to win the game. By that I mean almost carefree abandon at the crease. A bit early for that I would have thought. England are [4.00].


08.26 Eng 435-5
The tool kit in the works for England's best-laid plans is the weather. Bad light is expected to disrupt proceedings later on in the day and there is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. Shaun Pollock is so convinced about the impending gloom that he has predicted the whole of the last session being lost. Bu then again, it could be wishful thinking given his South African heritage.


08.14 Eng 415-5
England's run rate in the last 10 overs is a disappointing 2.8. No way near quick enough to force a result. It needs to be almost twice that. If England were to bat for the next 30 overs, scoring at four an over that would give them a lead of around 190. More than healthy. More importantly, though, they would be putting time back into the game by giving themselves, potentially, enough overs to bowl South Africa out and then make mad dash for the line themselves with the willow. There are 88 overs in total left today.


07.58 Eng 407-5
If you reckon that Collingwood didn't sound too sure this morning about how England would win this game, then give him the benefit of the doubt. He injured a finger in practice and has hopped off to hospital for a check-up. In a few minutes, I'll do some sums to try to work out what Andrew Strauss and co are thinking with regard to declarations and overs left. Could all be irrelevant, though. As many runs as possible in a bid not to bat again could be the route.


07.46 Eng 397-5, lead by 54
This Paul Collingwood's rather rambling take on how England can win this Test. "If the pitch stays at it has, obviously we'll need a fair bit of time to bowl out South Africa again. I think reverse swing could be important. If we can get it reversing then that would be great. Swann will be a handful on this wicket at the tailend of the Test. He took wickets in the first-innings so conditions might suit him a little more. And then there's scoreboard pressure. That's a key factor. We've got natural attacking batsmen at the crease so hopefully we can kick on this morning."


07.33 Eng 390-5
Boy, am I thankful for the dressing gown I received for Christmas. The cosseting fibres help no end to tempt me from the warmth of the bed for these early starts. Truly, the gift that keeps giving. No such worries in Durban. It looks another hot one. England will hope to turn up the temperature on South Africa this morning. South Africa [26.00], England [3.45] and the draw [1.45].

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