England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 01 June 2011 /

Ed Hawkins has all the stats, trends and a standout tip for the second Test, which starts at Lord's on Friday

Team news
England could go for a tall story for the Lord's Test if they show faith in Steven Finn. With James Anderson missing because of a side strain it is a straight battle between the Middlesex man and Jade Dernbach, who has been called up as cover.

If Finn gets the nod, joining fellow beanpoles Stuart Broad and Chris Tremlett, England would field one of the tallest bowling attacks of all time. Common sense would dictate that Finn plays. Lord's is his home ground and he was named in the squad for the first Test, Dernbach was not.

However, you cannot rule a left-field move. Dernbach, born in Jo'burg so he'll fit right in, is in vogue having taken nine wickets against Sri Lanka for England Lions and with his ability to swing the ball, he offers variety.

Sri Lanka could be forgiven for making a raft of changes after their embarrassing collapse in
Cardiff. But despite having been bowled out for 82 to go down by an innings after failing to bat out the remaining 51 overs on the last day, they are expected to go again with five specialist batsmen in a bid to take 20 wickets.

Dilhara Fernando, their most experienced bowler, should be fit and he is expected to replace Ajantha Mendis, the spinner.

Venue and conditions
No rain is forecast for the first four days at Lord's - not that many bettors should put much store in the forecast following a disastrous first Test for big draw layers. It is the wicket at HQ which is most likely to deny a result. Between 2005 and 2008 there were six consecutive stalemates, the first coming against Sri Lanka. Still, the last five have produced emphatic victories for England, who love the venue.

In their last 10 first-innings at Lord's, they average 460. Backing them for 450 or more in first innings at [2.03] could be the stand out wager.

Match odds
Sri Lanka have lost the trust of cricket bettors not just for this tour but for several years following their dismal performance in Cardiff.

What will worry coach Stuart Law is the lack of mental application. Fair enough, if they had been knocked over by seam and swing - alien concepts - then we could cut them slack, but not now.

What is surprising is that England are not shorter than [1.73]. That is still a good price about England making the Sri Lankans suffer although we stress that the hosts should trade bigger in running.

The flat nature of the wicket should mean Sri Lanka are capable of bringing in the draw price. Indeed, whoever bats first at Lord's generally looks cosy at lunch on day one and the stalemate is usually odds on.

Top England batsman
In terms of average, run machine and newly honoured England player of the year Jonathan Trott is the top performer at HQ. He averages a whopping 223 from two matches. Trott is [3.90] for top bat and [2.12] for a 50. Next best is Ian Bell over a more prolonged study of six matches. Bell is [6.40] for top bat and [2.52] for a 50.

Top Sri Lanka batsman
Mahela Jayawardene has 301 runs from two matches at an average of 100 at Lord's. Jayawardene is [4.00] for top bat but favourite status goes to - just - Kumar Sangakkara at [3.90]. Neither man appeals given they are struggling to switch over from IPL. Thilan Samaraweera, who has a head for a crisis, might be value for a 50 at [2.64].

Best bet: back England for 450 or more first-innings runs @ [2.03]

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