England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 03 September 2009 / Leave a comment

As England and Australia prepare to meet on Friday at the Oval in the first of seven one-day matches, Ed Hawkins explains why the hosts are underrated for game one

"Between February 2006 and February 2007 Australia lost seven games out of nine without Ponting"

Considering backing England in one-day cricket is much like preparing
to board a rollercoaster. It could be tremendous fun, provide memorable adrenalin highs and leave one with a self-satisfied glow. On the other hand soon you could be crying 'I want to get off!' and your lunch might make a reappearance.

The seven-match one-day series against Australia, which starts at the
Oval on Friday, is a case in point. England, [3.25] series outsiders, might be capable of corkscrewing the formbook. On the other hand the Aussies, as short as [1.55], will be so desperate to put Ashes misery behind them.

Or so they would have us believe. The advice for punters for game one would have to be buy your ticket and strap on the safety harness. England are the value at [2.54].

The problem with Australia at such short odds - they are no better than [1.62] - is that after more than three months on a miserable tour, they appear to have lost not only four of the five meaningful games which have produced a result, but interest, too. Coach Tim
Neilsen has gone home. So has captain Ricky Ponting. He is not due
back until the "tailend" of the series.

Until Ponting does come back, Australia will continue to be too short, not least at a venue where a side needs all the batting talent it can muster.

Without Ponting leading them, Australia are not the shoo-in that the market would have us believe. Their win percentage drops 11 per cent when he is not making the decisions and in their last six without him, Australia have been beaten three times. Indeed, between February 2006 and February 2007, Australia lost seven games out of nine. Michael Clarke will deputise as leader and stellar batsman but Australia are a far less fearsome prospect without Ponting.

The Oval is a dream to bat on and his absence levels things up considerably. Just take a look at the potential top sixes of each side. England: Strauss, Bopara, Prior, Shah, Collingwood and Morgan. Australia: Clarke, Watson, M Hussey, Voges, White, Hopes. The hosts have six specialists compared to Australia's four.

It is key on a surface which is among the best in the world to bat on. the Oval has a runs per wicket average 37.9 in the last 10 years which makes it the third best batting wicket anywhere. The average first-innings score in the last five matches is 281, a good guide for those wanting to play the runs markets.

Other opportunities present themselves in the form of markets like highest individual score and century scored. There have been 10 centuries scored in 13 matches since 2003 while in the last five, there have been 19 50s.

Who is most likely to score these runs is harder to pin down. In the last five games top scorers have been shared around the positions although it is interesting to note that only one opening batsman has top scored in first innings.

Ground form would make Owais Shah - England's most reliable one-day batsman even when Kevin Pietersen is around given the Middlesex man has finished top series runscorer three times in the last four - and Shane Watson potential punts. Shah averages 64 there and hit a fine unbeaten century against India two years ago. Watson demolished Surrey in 2005 in the Friends Provident Trophy with one of the most brilliant limited-overs innings one could wish to see.

Watson does not quite make up for Ponting, though and the wise money has to be on the hosts particularly with the possibility that they will shorten in such a volatile format. Besides, England have won three of the last four games against Australia and three of their last four series overall. Perhaps it won't be such a rollercoaster after all.

Tags: Australia, England, Michael Clarke, One-day cricket betting, Owais Shah, Ricky Ponting, Shane Watson, the Oval