One-Day Betting: Bowlers to the fore at Trent Bridge

England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 14 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Luke Wright is a doubt for the fifth ODI at Trent Bridge

England are 2.62 to arrest the slide. For the first match at The Oval they were 2.54. Surely they are not big enough given Australia’s dominance?

Despite the seven-match one-day series between England and Australia resembling a boxing match which should have been stopped, Ed Hawkins reckons there are plenty of punting opportunities for game five on Tuesday

England are making a strong case for boxing-style stoppages in cricket in their seven-match one-day series. Already 4-0 down with three to play, the referee should have stepped in long ago and one has to wonder whether they will be capable of defending themselves in Tuesday's day-night match under clear skies at Trent Bridge.

Likewise we must consider whether Australia have the appetite to go for the kill against such meek opposition. They have been on tour now for more than three months. With the series wrapped up and the ICC Champions looming they could be forgiven for not punching with the same ferocity.

Yet to discuss whether Australia will be trying as hard perfectly sums up how poor England have been. Granted, they have lost the services of Andrew Flintoff and Kevin Pietersen to injury and James Anderson and Paul Collingwood to fatigue but they have been comprehensively outplayed following game two at Lord's.

The bottom line as to whether they are backable or not has to be their price. They are [2.62] to arrest the slide. For the first match at The Oval they were [2.54]. Surely they are not big enough given Australia's dominance? The Aussies are [1.60] to make it five zip.

There are shards of hope for the hosts. They come in the form of Australia's less than impressive record in dead rubbers (five defeats in the last 10) and Trent Bridge's tendency to favour swing bowlers.

Of course that could spell utter humiliation for England with Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson so dangerous but the prospect of England's chances of taking wickets improving when they have averaged only five per game needs to be acknowledged.

Certainly, Trent Bridge's help for the bowlers is proved by five of the last six man-of-the-match awards going to bowlers. It is a stat which bucks the world-wide trend of bat dominating ball in the one-day game.

Last summer England wrecked South Africa's batting, bowling them out for just 83 to make it four victories from the last five in Nottingham. Stuart Broad, on his home ground, picked up the gong in that game.

A first-innings average of 228 over the last 10 games there is pretty standard but look more closely at the scorecards and you will spot that the 391 England posted against Bangladesh grossly inflates the figure. As well as South Africa being skittled, four sides have failed to make it past 200. That has to make a lay of 250 runs or more in first-innings a sensible wager.

England have been pretty consistent with the bat, regularly posting totals which can be classed as respectable: 256, 210, 228 and 220 and they will again rely on Andrew Strauss, their captain and opening batsmen, to do much of the runscoring.

He averages 67 in List A matches at Trent Bridge with Owais Shah next best with 42. Joe Denly, Eoin Morgan and Adil Rashid have yet to play at the venue in the format while Matt Prior, Luke Wright and Broad muster only 34 runs between them on averages.

The weakness of England's lower middle-order has at least provided in-running bettors with value. In each of the four matches England have got off to cracking starts (96-1, 41-0, 74-0, 83-1) before imploding. If they manage something similar in the infancy of an innings you surely shouldn't need instructions on what to do.

Wright is a doubt for England after needing stitches on a toe injury inflicted during net practice. It is another blow for the hosts. Wright has had a mixed series with bat and ball but if England lose their all-rounder, they will have two roles to fill. Besides, the Sussex man is a counter-puncher and England are desperate for those at the moment.