England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 18 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Australia are set to field a full-strength side at the Riverside as they look to inflict a 7-0 reverse on a beleagured England. Ed Hawkins tries to find some wagers in another one-sided contest

"With Australia apparently keen to turn their performance levels up a notch, making a case for England seems almost impossible"

The seven match one-day series, also known as the Never Ending Story, is, believe it or not, about to finish at the Riverside on Sunday when England take on an Australia side that they are more familiar with than Katie Price is with tabloid scandal.

Of course it won't be as salacious, interesting or amusing as anything that the glamour girl can conjure but we can at least expect England to once more make complete boobs of themselves. A chastening 6-0 down and their confidence in strips ahead of the ICC Champions Trophy, which starts in South Africa on Tuesday, the hosts are the biggest they have been for a win in the series at [2.80].

Australia are [1.54] and are soaring. It could be argued they have peaked too soon ahead of the mini World Cup but do not forget they have been shuffling their pack. Ominously for England, tiouring captain Ricky Ponting has said that they will play a full-strength side as a warm-up for the tournament.

That means Michael Clarke and Mitchell Johnson should both return after missing the latest stroll at Trent Bridge. With Australia apparently keen to turn their performance levels up a notch, making a case for England seems almost impossible.

Save for suggesting that they cannot be as bad again as they were on Thursday at Nottingham - the defeat by 111 runs was predictable because although England had been poor they usually produce a real stinker of an effort over the course of a series - Andrew Strauss and co will surely find the trek to the north east a bind.

England have form for being brilliant and bad at Durham's Riverside home. Last summer they gave New Zealand a good thumping after posting 307. Four years previously they were bowled out for just 101 against the same opposition. Marcus Trescothick top scored with just 14.

The most convincing trend, however, is for runs, which could take one by surprise given the Riverside's reputation for a venue which favours the bowlers. The first-innings average in nine matches (eight results) is a healthy 231. Six times in the study period has the side batting first scored 250 or more. In those games there have been five centuries and 16 half-centuries.

Currently, [2.72] is available to back about a century being scored and given the true odds should be [2.25] on the statistical history, one would have to say that represents value. Key to such a bet is, of course, the weather which, thankfully, is set fair.

Another punting opportunity presents itself in the form of Joe Denly, who has a 0.5 run headstart, outscoring Ravi Bopara. Denly has a century at this ground in county cricket giving him an average of 51 while Bopara has a mark of just 3.5. The Essex man is looking weary after a long and miserable summer while there are signs that Denly is beginning to find his feet at international level.

Bopara should bat at No 3 for England and we are rather hoping a trend will be bucked by getting against him. In the nine matches the man coming in at first wicket down has top scored five times. That makes Ponting more tempting than usual on the top Australia runscorer market.

In-running punters should be aware that when the eight results in one-day internationals are combined with the four Friends Provident Trophy matches that there is a bias in favour of the side batting second, who have eight victories.

That is not enough to make this a toss affair, however and make England the bet. No matter. Punters will be quite happy if Australia oblige at short odds once again and they can temper their sadness that the Never Ending Story has finally reached a conclusion with the knowledge that England will be back in action shortly. And shortly could be the operative word in a cut-throat knockout tournament.

Tags: Andrew Strauss, Australia cricket betting, England Cricket betting, ICC Champions Trophy, Joe Denly, Michael Clarke, Mitchell Johnson, Ricky Ponting, Riverside