England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 20 December 2008 /

Commentators might be gushing about England's chances but such optimism only makes Ed Hawkins wish the so-called experts would open Betfair accounts...

After England took four India wickets for 19 runs on the second day of the second and final Test in Mohali, a heady optimism appeared to be surging through commentators and pundits alike.

"They're right back in this game," "still in the hunt" and "what a fightback" were some of the gushing sentiments. It is at times like this that one wishes these people would open Betfair accounts. England were still in the mid 40s for victory.

A few hours later, India were bowled out for 453 and although that represented good work after the home side were 320 for one, it does not mean that they are suddenly contenders. For a clue, look at the prices: India are [3.45], England [70.00] and the draw [1.42].

India will remain the most tempting bet. In 62 Tests when batting first and scoring more than 450 at home, India have never lost and they have a win percentage of 31.

Those stats suggested that at the innings break India were a steal.

But how do England fare in the face of such a huge first-innings total?

Over the last 25 Tests when they have conceded 350 or more, they have won eight, lost nine and drawn eight. Not too shabby. However, before one starts getting excited about whopping prices on England, only one of those victories came away from home.

In their last 10 Tests (with the same criteria), England average 292 in their first innings, although that figure is inflated unfairly slightly because of the massive 526 they managed against New Zealand at Leeds in 2004 with Marcus Trescothick hitting a century.

From those list of scores, the 81 all out against Sri Lanka in Galle in 2007 will have the alarm bells ringing because the conditions on that ground are similar to Mohali.

If one is looking for a top-bat bet, it is disconcerting to discover that Ian Bell has outscored his team-mates most when in the last 10 tests that England have conceded 350 or more. Backing him at [5.80] could be another case of heady optimism.

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