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India v England: Day three verdict - England must be bold to secure rare win

England Cricket RSS / / 13 December 2008 /

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A huge total may not be needed if the stats are anything to go by, says Ed Hawkins.

The only impediment to England not securing a 1-0 lead in their two-Test series against India appears to be their own caution. History is heavily on their side in Chennai as they ended day three with a lead by 247 with seven wickets remaining.

The tourists are [2.06] for victory with the draw [2.68] and India's price drifting inexorably towards irrelevance at [6.80]. It is the price of the stalemate which made the biggest market move in the final session as bettors grew concerned that the wicket was becoming easier to score runs on.

England backers will hope that captain Kevin Pietersen has not been fooled. If he delays a declaration too long, the home side are unlikely to believe their luck and could grab a chance to stay level with both hands.

Fears over what is going through Pietersen's mind would appear justified because he has failed to live up to his claim that he would be an attacking captain. And cricketers' lack of gambling instinct was confirmed when Mark Butcher and Robert Croft, in pundit roles for Sky Sports, both said they wanted England to bat on until they had scored 300.

Such a move could jeopardise England's victory chances and one could be sure that the current away win and draw odds would flip flop.

A quick trawl through historic scorecards suggests England already have enough. India have chased more than 250 only once in the fourth innings at home. In 1964 they made 256-8 to beat Australia.

At Chennai, the highest total scored to win a game batting last is 159 while only three teams have scored more than 250 in history batting last - India (bowled out) v Pakistan in 1999, India 347 v Australia in 1986 and West Indies 270-7 in 1967.

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