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From Ugly Duckling to Graeme Swann

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Andrew Hughes tells us how a rejuvenated Grame Swann has changed England's fortunes to the extent that they are on the brink of Series success against Sri Lanka

Along with tea, polite applause and cucumber sandwiches, the rain dance has become an integral part of the English cricket watchers repertoire. When Australia are 600-1, nothing lifts the spirits more than the sight of leaden skies and the sheen of imminent rain. And now the weather gods are poised to intervene on England's behalf once more.

The monsoon that usually settles over southwest Sri Lanka during October is fast approaching and could conceivably wipe out one or both of the remaining matches in Colombo. With England safely ensconced in the ark of their 2-1 lead, they might be forgiven for watching the gloomy skies with righteous glee.

Now, as Michael Fish would confirm, weather forecasting is a slippery business. With storm clouds gathering, the odds on England are 1.76 and you can get 6.6 on the draw. The stand out price, however, in the sense that in my opinion it is wrong- is that for Sri Lanka. Bearing in mind that even if the rain stays away, they need to win both remaining matches, I would have them closer to 5.0 and at the current 2.78 I would definitely be a layer.

As well as not correctly factoring in the weather, I believe the markets are also guilty of underestimating England's improvement on this tour. They have shown a willingness to work hard and to adapt their game plans, qualities reflective of the new regime. Under Duncan Fletcher, the day after a fifty over game was a day off and as we saw in St Lucia, the devil will find pedallos for idle cricketers. Under Moores, every day is a training day.

The turnaround is particularly impressive considering their poor effort in the first match, which featured some stereotypical bowling and indisciplined batting on a substandard pitch. After that game, there was a team meeting that seems to have resulted in a strengthened resolve to get back into the series. Since then, the batsmen - Pietersen aside - have shown more restraint. Bowling coach Otis Gibson has got Anderson and Broad to bowl for the conditions, rather than striving for winning deliveries each time. And whilst Paul Collingwood may not be a tactical genius, (more Alec Stewart than Michael Vaughan), he is learning and he does seem to instil fighting spirit.

More pleasing still is that their recovery has not depended on the misfiring Pietersen or the talismanic Flintoff but on contributions from support acts Owais Shah, Ryan Sidebottom and Graeme Swann, all of whom were selected and unceremoniously dumped by Duncan Fletcher. Graeme Swann in particular has been a revelation. The cocky twenty year old who made his debut at Bloemfontain in 2000 and was then cast out into the cricketing wilderness, is now a more mature, rounded cricketer and has been the player of this series. He has bowled with clever loop and turn, batted with a punchy belligerent intelligence and fielded with tigerish enthusiasm. His success with the ball has even encouraged Sri Lanka to consider selecting a specialist spinner for the last two games.

It is true that England have also benefited from some good fortune. First, the absence of Muralitheran is a huge bonus. Then there is the curious scheduling of five day-night games, nullifying the advantage for Sri Lanka of playing in the debilitating midday heat. And once they'd got used to the curious Dambullah pitch, England found it offered their bowlers seam and swing, particularly under the lights.

It is also true that the batsman's paradise at the R.Premadasa Stadium in Columbo will be a different kettle of cobras. Sri Lanka are dominant there, winning 43 of the last 59 matches. Nevertheless, Cook, Bell, Collingwood and Shah all have the patience and technique to score runs on that sort of pitch.

Consequently, if the rain does stay away, I would have the two teams much closer for the fourth match than they are currently and the 2.66 for England is worth taking. On the top England batsman market, I would be looking at Ian Bell. He has always had excellent technique and these days is more confident in his abilities. There have been signs that he is coming into touch and I would back him 4.7 to top score for England in Colombo on Wednesday.

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