Fourth Test Betting: South Africa v England

England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 13 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Andrew Strauss eyes a perfect pitch for his attack

"The Wanderers groundsman has already admitted that the surface will be grassy and that the Test is unlikely to last five days. But you don't need to take his word for it. Look at the recent results: not a single draw in the last nine Tests."

South Africa must win to level the series in the final Test in Johannesburg, starting on Thursday, but Ed Hawkins says there is only one bet punters should consider on what should be a result wicket

Team news
South Africa, desperate to avoid only their fifth home series defeat in 12 years, are set to take a risk befitting a side that is 1-0 down with one Test to come, at Johannesburg starting on Thursday (08.30GMT). As well as gambling on ordering a grassy wicket to force a result, the hosts may also pick an all-seam attack.

With Friedel De Wet absent because of a back injury, Wayne Parnell, the left-arm seamer, is certain to play. He could be joined by Ryan McLaren, the former Kent allrounder, at the expense of the cowed Paul Harris. But why stop there? South Africa would be well-advised to drop opener Ashwell Prince, 78 runs in six innings, for Alviro Petersen, who could hardly do any worse.

England are expected to name an unchanged side to become the sixth team in history to use only 11 players in a four or five-match series.

Pitch conditions
The Wanderers groundsman has already admitted that the surface will be grassy and that the Test is unlikely to last five days. But you don't need to take his word for it. Look at the recent results: not a single draw in the last nine Tests.

Indeed, the pitch is expected to behave in similar fashion to the surfaces we saw at the Champions Trophy in September. They were bowler-friendly and in the nine one-day internationals played at Jo'burg, only two sides batting first made more than 250.

There is a toss bias to be aware of. Six of the last seven Test matches have been won by the side winning the toss and five of those teams batted first. Unfortunately, the weather forecast is poor with heavy showers expected on the first three days.

Match odds
Weighing up a match odds wager for Test cricket can often produce enough umm-ing and aah-ing to have the neighbours reckoning you've set up a quiz league. Not this time, though. The fourth Test at Jo'burg is about as simple as it gets.

With historic results pointing to a result, a grassy pitch doing likewise and a toss bias, you should have come to the conclusion that this is a 50-50 call between South Africa and England.

So why the gulf in prices? South Africa are [2.54] and England [3.75] with the draw {2.88]. Simply, England are astonishing value.

Their confidence levels are greater, they are a settled side and they have the opportunity to play on a pitch which is a sight for sore eyes given the hard and bland surfaces their bowlers often toil on abroad.

With pacemen dominating the last six Tests at Jo'burg (a fast bowler has finished as top match wicket-taker in each of them) James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Graham Onions are the more potent attack. Dale Steyn aside, South Africa's bowling options are ravaged by injury and selection conundrums.

Twice now South Africa have failed to finish England off and coach Mickey Arthur has admitted his men were "shattered" that they could not complete a victory in Cape Town. By contrast England are a tough and uncompromising outfit who have won five of their last seven Tests of a series.

Top batsman
Ground form points us to England skipper Strauss as the best punt for the tourists' top first-innings bat. When England won at this ground in 2005, Strauss made a brilliant 147. Of course he should feel at home there, he was born in Jo'burg.

Strauss is [5.30] for honours but it is Any Other Batsman (from and including Ian Bell down) which is the jolly at [4.90]. Kevin Pietersen is [5.30]

South Africa's form man is (yawn) Prince. He has three top bat efforts in recent Tests at The Wanderers. But Graeme Smith (47), Hashim Amla (49) and Jacques Kallis (45) have better averages at the venue.

Featured market
England are [2.34] to win the toss and bat while a day three finish is priced at [9.80]