Cash in by backing England in the last 10 overs

England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 08 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Racing Post's Ed Hawkins tells us during which periods of the game you want to be siding with England

HAD punters not been made aware by this column that runs would be in short supply in the first three matches of the one-day series between Sri Lanka and England, it would have been a surprise to see the bowlers dominate.

The willowmen really struggled in Dambulla with no player scoring a century and only three men passing 50. Life should get easier for the final two matches in Colombo where bat normally has the upper hand over ball.

Certainly England may find it harder to win matches there then at Dambulla although the confidence they have gained with a 2-1 lead will stand them in good stead.

Punters have had little faith in England one-day sides in the past because they have often failed spectacularly with the bat. So it had been odd to see them winning matches despite misfiring.

Indeed it is worth studying England's ability with the willow, in particular to give bettors a boost when perusing prices for first innings runs if Paul Collingwood's men are batting.

We have looked at England's run rate in the five ten-over segments over their last ten one-day internationals, their three matches against Sri Lanka and the last ten when they have used all 50 overs.

It has produced some interesting results and one standout in-running ploy.

England are remarkably consistent in the last ten overs of their innings. Our stats show that they score consistently between 7.1-7.9 runs per over. Take advantage.
The knowledge that England should score 70-80 runs with ten overs remaining is useful punting information and can be used to good effect - backing or laying - on the match outright market.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the statistics show that England struggle in the
middle part of an innings.

We have always known this to be the case because this is traditionally the part of a match when the opposition test England with their spinners.

England have been found wanting in the past simply because they are not used to working the twirlers into the gaps. Instead the runs dry up, they panic and wickets fall.

This is evident in the run rates. In overs 21-30 England do not manage to go at more than 4.5 an over.

Against Sri Lanka they are scoring at just four runs an over. However, this can be attributed to the poor wickets at Dambulla. Just look at their run rate in the 11-20 over period for more proof - just 2.8.

One historic criticism that does not appear to have much justification is that England do not score quickly enough in the power plays.

In fact the run rate of just over five an over in the last ten matches is very healthy as England, first with Matt Prior, and now Phil Mustard, are determined to use a pinch-hitter.

The survey, and more importantly England's recent form, suggests England are beginning to get to grips with the one-day game. Maybe it is time for punters to show more faith.

England's run rate in last ten one-day internationals
Overs Run rate
First 10 5.1
11-20 4.2
21-30 4.3
31-40 5.2
41-50 7.9

England's run rate in last ten one-day internationals when they have used full 50 overs
Overs Run rate
First 10 4
11 - 20 4.6
21 - 30 4.4
31 - 40 4.7
41 - 50 7.6

England's run rate v Sri Lanka in current series
Overs Run rate
First 10 4.2
11 - 20 2.8
21 - 30 4
31 - 40 4.6
41 - 50 7.1