England Cricket / Editor / 04 June 2007 /

Thursday 11.00

England are one up with two to play and will retain the Wisden Trophy if they avoid defeat at Old Trafford. Since drawing on their last visit to Manchester in August 2000, the West Indies have lost 10 and drawn two against England and trade at 110 to win the series. A series win for the hosts is available at 1.05.

England's dominant position in the markets is to be expected after the manner of their victory at Headingley Carnegie last week. The first Test ended in disappointment, with question marks over their bowling attack, but they responded in fine style at Leeds, dismissing the tourists for a combined total of 287 to inflict their heaviest-ever innings defeat.

Luck was not on the West Indies' side in the second Test as England enjoyed the best of the conditions before the intermittent rain arrived. There were also injury problems for the tourists, as Shivnarine Chanderpaul was forced out prior to the game, while fellow middle-order batsman and captain Ramnaresh Sarwan damaged his right acromioclavicular joint during the match leaving them one short in the batting department.

That shoulder injury has ruled Sarwan out of the rest of the tour and stand-in skipper Daren Ganga's side are unfancied at 18.5 to upset the record books by recording a win in Manchester.
The innings and 283 run defeat was their 18th Test without a win and they have now lost 17 and drawn four of their last 21 overseas - unsurprisingly England are made favourites at 1.63 with 2.96 the draw.

Old Trafford produces the most draws of any ground in England with 48.6% of Tests to date ending without a winner - largely due to the amount of rain in the region. However, the hosts wrapped up the Leeds Test with a day to spare, despite losing a whole day to rain, so should the tourists avoid defeat in this one, they will surely have earned it on merit.

Only 13 Manchester Tests have been played in June and 10 of those have produced a winner - nine of which were won by the team batting first. Bowler-friendly conditions made the skippers' decisions tougher in the first two Tests, but they should have no trouble in deciding what to do if the coin favours them on Thursday and there will be some keen interest in the 'Toss Combination' market as the start gets closer.

88.7% of toss-winning captains elect to bat at Old Trafford, and although this is not always a successful tactic - 15 of the last 16 have made that choice and only three have been victorious - it would take a brave captain to bowl first. Eight have done that at Old Trafford and none have celebrated a win, although draws occurred on seven occasions.

Michael Vaughan will just be glad to be flipping the coin. He missed 18 months of Test action and he can add to his personal triumph of scoring a ton on his comeback at Leeds by becoming the most successful England captain ever with victory at Old Trafford. He and Peter May have won 20 of the Tests they captained.

The Lancashire venue is a happy hunting ground for Vaughan - on his last visit he scored a memorable 100 against Australia and averages 56 from his five matches played there.

Another man under scrutiny at Headingley was Stephen Harmison. He improved slightly on his wayward Lord's performance and polished off the Windies tail in the second innings and will go into this clash with increased confidence.

He has taken 18 wickets at an average of 18.22 at Old Trafford, renowned as a quick pitch, and has 46 wickets at 23.34 against the West Indies. Harmison could pass the 200 Test-wicket mark if he repeats last year's Old Trafford heroics against Pakistan, when he and Monty Panesar shared 19 wickets. They trade at 5 and 2.66 respectively to be England's top wicket taker in the series, with six and seven scalps to their names so far.

England have already named an unchanged side, as Andrew Flintoff has had another ankle operation and Matthew Hoggard has not recovered from his thigh strain. Ian Bell is fit after suffering from back pain at Headingley.

The tourists have been hit by Sarwan's premature departure and Marlon Samuels might go straight into the third Test line-up, especially as Chris Gayle is struggling with a rib problem. Fidel Edwards could earn a recall after impressing against the MCC, although Ravi Rampaul injured his groin and will not be considered.

Runako Morton smashed a double century in that tour match and most of the tourists enjoyed decent batting practice in rattling up a total of 534. However, the biggest fillip is the prospective return of Chanderpaul.

His experience of unfamiliar conditions was sorely missed in the second Test, as he averages 59.83 in England. He hit a half century in his only previous trip to Old Trafford and might appeal in the tourists' top runscorer market.

The former skipper hit 74 in his only knock at Lord's and is just 57 runs adrift of all-rounder Dwayne Bravo, who top scored for West Indies at Old Trafford in 2004. They trade at 3.7 and 4.5 respectively.

England's seven-wicket win in that match was the closest they were pushed by the Windies that summer. They at one point had a 160-run second-innings lead with eight wickets remaining but collapsed to leave a far easier run chase for the hosts than should have been the case.

Indeed, England have been a hard team to beat on their own patch. The last five home summers have brought 20 wins, four defeats and six draws, suggesting they might well win the last two Tests to claim a 3-0 series victory. They are currently on offer at 2.28 to do so.

English conditions also seem to be to the liking of Kevin Pietersen, who averages 64.2 from the 14 matches he has been involved in so far on home soil. He has passed 50 in seven of his last nine Tests overall and has hit 361 runs in this series so far, 139 more than anyone else. He has shortened to 1.14 to top his team's runscoring charts.

England have all the momentum from Headingley and complacency might trip them up as much as any West Indian rejuvenation. A realisation that Old Trafford is their second least productive home ground might help guard against that - they have won only 31.4% of Tests and have drawn four of the last eight.

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