England Cricket / Editor / 05 February 2007 /

England v New Zealand - Commonwealth Bank Series Match 12 - Tuesday 3.15

England's win over Australia on Friday has provided them with an unexpected chance to reach the series final. Their One Day performances hit rock bottom during this triangular series, but that victory at Sydney has turned this final group match of the series into a winner-takes-all affair.

These two seemed set to be involved in a two-way race to face Australia in the final from the outset, and this Day/Night clash at Brisbane is sure to be a tense encounter. The Gabba was the venue of England's first Test defeat and they will be desperate not to end a hugely disappointing tour on the ground that set the tone for their miserable winter downunder.

Defeat for England would also mean that they had played their last ODI before the World Cup commences on March 13th. Two or three games against Australia might not bring a series win, but it would at least provide further preparation for a squad that does not know its best 11. The Kiwis host Australia in a three match series soon after this one finishes.

England's lack of form in this tournament has not only prompted the selectors to consider another recall for Darren Gough, but has also seen their fringe players out-perform the senior figures. Ed Joyce was surely on the verge of being jettisoned after a tentative start to his international career, whilst Liam Plunkett has spent most of the tour as drinks waiter, yet their impressive recent performances have all but secured World Cup spots.

The form of Andrew Strauss and Paul Collingwood - 215 runs at a combined average of 16.54 - must be a concern for a management team who can surely only guarantee World Cup starting places for Andrew Flintoff, Kevin Pietersen and Monty Panesar, who made his ODI debut in this series.

New Zealand have been hampered by injuries and Nathan Astle's sudden retirement, yet have a far less muddled selection policy. The Kiwis will be confident of advancing to the final, despite England's shock win over the hosts, as they have outclassed England in two of their three clashes so far.

Punters do not seem to attach too much significance to England's long overdue victory either. They trade at 2.52 to win this clash, with the Black Caps at 1.63. They were available at 2.6 and 1.58 respectively in the run up to their Perth clash in match 9, which the Kiwis won comfortably by 58 runs.

A glance at England's averages suggests that too many individuals are not performing. Seven matches have brought just one ton and four half centuries, with only Joyce and the sorely missed Pietersen averaging over 40 with the bat. Jimmy Anderson, also now back home, is the top wicket taker with eight scalps.

England's average score this series has been 197.9, compared to New Zealand's 251.4. England have taken an average of 6.43 wickets per match, whilst the Kiwis have claimed on average 7.29 per game.

Aussie players unsurprisingly lead the way in the top runscorer charts, with Ricky Ponting 63 runs clear of Matthew Hayden after plundering another ton in Australia's win over the Black Caps on Sunday. The Aussie skipper trades at 1.51 in the top runscorer market and his continued excellence makes it hard for the real punters to look beyond him in this market.

Ross Taylor, Peter Fulton, Lou Vincent and the destructive Jacob Oram - 256 runs at an average of 128 and a strike rate of 126.1 - have all scored in excess of 200 runs in the series and only Joyce has achieved this feat for England. Oram is currently third in the betting in this market, at 9.2.

The top wicket taker market is far more open, with two wickets separating six bowlers at the top of the table. Glenn McGrath currently heads the betting at 2.32, but punters who have backed the ever consistent Daniel Vettori (2.6) will hope the Kiwis progress to the final to provide the slow left armer with the chance to top this market.

Vettori is New Zealand's key bowler, as he is not only their top wicket taker with 10 at 28.4, but also their tightest. No bowler who has played more than one game in the series can match his economy rate of 4.11.

The Black Caps' spinner might not favour the Gabba wicket which has been used just once in the series, in a low scoring contest that suited the quick bowlers. Australia lost six wickets in chasing England's 155 all out in a Day/Night clash that saw pacemen claim 15 of the 16 wickets to fall.

Despite Australia smashing 602 for nine in the Test match, the Gabba has traditionally not been a high scoring ground in ODIs: only three times in 58 matches have a team scored in excess of 300.

These relatively low scoring matches have made for interesting cricket and the toss winning captain will have a tricky decision to make. The team batting first has won five and lost five of the last 10 ODIs at the Gabba, and the team losing the toss has won five matches during that time.

The Black Caps have marginally the better record of the two at Brisbane, winning six of their 10 visits, perhaps partly due to playing Australia just once. England have won six and lost six at the Gabba, and have faced the Aussies five times. Prior to this series, England had won their last four matches there.

England look likely to be boosted by the return of Michael Vaughan, who will reclaim the captaincy from Flintoff and an opening slot from Mal Loye if he has fully recovered from his hamstring injury. Paul Collingwood might replace Ravi Bopara and Jon Lewis could dislodge Sajid Mahmood from the bowling attack.

The Kiwis have been keen to rest Shane Bond, but the must-win nature of this clash might mean he plays ahead of the fit again Kyle Mills. Scott Styris returned against Australia on Sunday and he should keep out Craig McMillan.

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