Cricket Betting: Proteas plot "result wicket"

England Cricket / Ralph Ellis / 12 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

"The draw shouldn’t be the second favourite result at [2.88], so that’s definitely one to lay – especially at a ground that’s seen a result in all the last nine Test matches played there."

In a final attempt to avoid losing a series for which his team were red hot favourites, Graeme Smith has called for a pitch which will produce a result. This means the toss will be crucial, says Ralph Ellis.

At least, after all the accusations of underhand tricks and subterfuge about alleged ball tampering, there's nothing secretive or devious about the way South Africa are approaching the final Test. It's the complete opposite. Totally brazen. They have instructed the groundsman at The Wanderers to prepare a terror track that will produce a result and they aren't afraid to admit it.

I suggested at the start of the series that coach Mickey Arthur was under pressure from the constant presence around the team of Duncan Fletcher, and that strain is telling. One down with one to play, the boss of the nation deposed from the top of the ICC rankings is making a last throw of the dice to try to avoid ending up losing a series for which his side were red hot favourites.

Of course we all know that doctoring of wickets to try to engineer a particular result goes on. It's just normally done with a sly nudge and a wink to the groundsman, before everybody denies it ever happened. Arthur has done the opposite. "We've had a meeting with the groundsman, that's no secret," he's told today's papers. "You can take grass off a pitch but you cannot put it back on."

A "result wicket" will turn the final Test into a bit of a lottery. Arthur's gamble is that his side win the toss, throw the ball to Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and 20-year-old debutant Wayne Parnell, and get the best of the track to force a win. Lose the toss, though, and it could just as easily blow up in his face and help Andrew Strauss complete a glorious tour. What it does mean is that the draw shouldn't be the second favourite result at [2.88], so that's definitely one to lay - especially at a ground that's seen a result in all the last nine Test matches played there.

It also tells us Graeme Swann, spin bowling hero of the season so far, will have less of a role to play. Strauss has even been looking at Ryan Sidebottom working out in the nets as an option to add more seam bowling to his attack in conditions that will also help swing. That means Swann shouldn't be as short as [1.46] to end the series as England's leading wicket taker when his current haul of 19 is only three ahead of Jimmy Anderson - so back Anderson to overhaul his total at a value price of [3.5].

It also makes it well worth laying Paul Harris to be South Africa's top bowler if you can get anything matched around [3.0]. The spinner has 11 in the series so far to [1.82] favourite Morne Morkel's [12.0]. He'll bowl less in this game, and it looks in any case as if England have started to find him out - at Centurion he was ultimately taken out of the attack and it was the occasional spin of JP Duminy that did the damage.

Don't mean to brag, but hell, why not? Before the series even began I suggested backing Ian Bell to be the top England batsman at [9.0] thanks to a newspaper feature on the level of his preparation. He's now leading the list with 273 runs and is [2.96] going into the final match. Then learning that Graham Gooch had been recruited to improve the batting encouraged us to lay South Africa for the series at [1.75]. Before the second Test we read South Africa would drop the dangerous Friedel De Wet and stick with ageing Makhaya Ntini which encouraged us to back England to win that game at [4.6]. Arthur's open and honest warning at his tactics should help us get one last payday.

Five things you might not know about Wayne Parnell

1. Born July 1989 in Port Elizabeth with the full name Wayne Dillon Parnell, he was 15 when he was first picked for South Africa's Under 19 team

2. He was the youngest player ever handed a central contract by Cricket South Africa

3. He spent last summer playing for Kent where former England wicket keeper Geraint Jones said Parnell was the fastest he'd faced since Steve Harmison in the 2005 Ashes series

4. He's nicknamed 'Pigeon' because his Kent team mates said he walked with his feet pointing out like a bird

5. He was suspended for a game in October by his district side Warriors for breaking a curfew and staying out late during a previous match