Cricket Betting: Lack of pace will cost England in South Africa

England Cricket / Ralph Ellis / 09 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"It’s hard to argue with the current odds that have the South Africans as short as [1.55] to win the Test series with England a juicy [4.7]."

In Steve Harmison and Monty Panesar they've left out two potential match winners. So can England succeed in South Africa this winter?

Steve Harmison will always be remembered for two completely contrasting Ashes deliveries. The first was a great one, the second ball of the 2005 Ashes series that leapt up and smashed into Justin Langer's forearm. The Aussies might have gone on to win that Test, but a statement of intent had been made for the series and England had shown they were up for battle.

The second? Who can forget sitting up with eager anticipation for the start of the tour Down Under a year later, and Harmison's opening ball that went straight to second slip. For a split second we roared thinking that Andrew Flintoff had just taken a fantastic catch - and then we realised we'd actually just witnessed the worst bit of bowling in Test history.

Those two moments just about sum up Harmison's career, wavering constantly between the brilliant and banal. And I can't help wondering whether England are right to have announced their touring party to South Africa this winter without him.

The 31-year-old has been hung out to dry by national selector Geoff Miller this morning, who has made sure that despite the blistering final spell at The Oval that sealed this summer's Ashes victory, Harmison will get no sympathy for being left behind again. He's made it clear that the Durham pace bowler demanded a guarantee of a place in the Test XI as a condition of going on tour, and as Miller says: "We can't give guarantees. Not even the captain has that. He would have to go in a squad and fight for his place like everybody else."

On the one hand you can understand that policy. You can't have one player who is subject to different rules than the rest, however talented. But it's very easy to leave out your best player if he's a bit temperamental. The art of good management is to find a way to make him happy and get him playing, and England will miss Harmison at his best, no question.

He is the only bowler we possess with the genuine pace to match the South Africans' line-up of Dale Steyn and Wayne Parnell. His replacement ,Liam Plunkett, might have picked up 49 wickets for Durham this summer but relies more on swing - which is great in English conditions but doesn't happen so often on tour. Plunkett's nine Test matches so far have yielded just 23 wickets, and the only hope is that at 24 he has grown up a bit from the raw youngster who went to the West Indies during Andrew Flintoff's ill-fated reign as captain.

Monty Panesar, another potential match winner, has also been left out. So with only one spinner in the 16-man squad - although Adil Rashid is included as an all-rounder - it's hard to see how England can bowl out anybody twice, for all their Ashes success last summer. And for that reason alone it's hard to argue with the current odds that have the South Africans as short as [1.55] to win the Test series with England a juicy [4.7].

Five things you might not know about Liam Plunkett

1. Born in April 1985 in the Midddlesbrough superb of Nunthorpe, his middle name is Edward

2. He's nicknamed Pudsey for his supposed likeness to the BBC's Children in Need bear

3. He was one of the five players whose career was damaged by the 'Fredalo' incident during England's trip to the West Indies

4. His father Alan, suffering a kidney disease, has several times turned down Liam's offer to donate a kidney for transplant because it would have ended his son's cricket career

5. In February 2007 he got a 20 month ban for drink driving after crashing his 4x4 on his way back from a nightclub